Sensivity of Crop Yields to Temperature and Rainfall Daily Metrics in Senegal

Abdou Kader Toure^1, , Moussa Diakhaté¹, Amadou Thierno Gaye¹, Mbaye Diop² and Ousmane Ndiaye³

¹Laboratoire Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Océan - Siméon Fongang (LPAO-SF), UCAD, Dakar, Senegal

²Institut Sénégalais de Recherche Agricole (ISRA), Dakar, Senegal

³Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM), Dakar, Senegal

Cite this paper:
Abdou Kader Toure, Moussa Diakhaté, Amadou Thierno Gaye, Mbaye Diop and Ousmane Ndiaye. Sensivity of Crop Yields to Temperature and Rainfall Daily Metrics in Senegal. American Journal of Rural Development. 2020; 8(1):1-11. doi: 10.12691/ajrd-8-1-1

Abstract

Senegal is a sub-Saharan country marked by rainfed agriculture, which is under the recurrent threat of climatic upheaval, mostly due to irregular rainfall and temperature. This study shows evidence of the influence of daily rainfall metrics on crop (groundnut and millet) yields. Statistical analysis has been carried out using observational datasets and over the period 1961-2018. The results show an increase in temperatures in our zone, which is in line with the decrease in groundnut yields. Also, significant correlations of 0.81 and 0.69 between the total rainfall indices and groundnut and millet have been found respectively. Rainfall intensity, length, and distribution would contribute up to 66% and 49% to the variability in groundnut and millet yields respectively. A decrease in crop yields is considerable during dry periods (18% for groundnut and 10% for millet) due to the occurrence of long dry spells and low rainfall distribution. The groundnut yield appears most affected by these indicators, while millet is more resistant in dry conditions. To face the major future challenges, it is essential to ensure that changes in these metrics are effectively taken into account in agro-climatic model simulations.

Keywords:
temperature rainfall metrics yield climate impacts sensivity

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