Integration of Queueing Network into Susceptible Exposed Likely Infected Confirmed Dead Removed Model for Ebola Virus Disease Analysis

Ikeme John Dike^1, and Chinyere Ogochukwu Dike²

¹Department of Statistics & Operations Research, Modibbo Adama University of Technology, P.M.B 2076, Yola, Adamawa State, Nigeria

²Federal College of Education P.M.B 2042, Yola, Adamawa State, Nigeria

Cite this paper:
Ikeme John Dike and Chinyere Ogochukwu Dike. Integration of Queueing Network into Susceptible Exposed Likely Infected Confirmed Dead Removed Model for Ebola Virus Disease Analysis. American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics. 2018; 6(2):54-60. doi: 10.12691/ajams-6-2-3

Abstract

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a complicated and unparalleled epidemic disease. In recent times, the disease has been ravaging human lives and economy in West African nations. The most affected countries are Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Contagious disease like Ebola transmits through networks, made by bodily interactions among persons. As a result of the transmission mode and deadly nature of the disease, this paper proposes an EVD transmission and control model which incorporates queueing network that considers all the transmission phases in order to understand the real nature of the disease and predict its behaviour. The result for network indicates that the population was vulnerable to large scale epidemics before intervention in the three countries. In network model, critical transmissibility or epidemic threshold is the least transmissibility necessary for an outbreak to turn into a large scale epidemic. The for the three countries was 0.0644. Before intervention, the transmissibility for Guinea was 0.1365, Liberia, 0.2093 and Sierra Leone, 0.1325. After intervention, the transmissibility for Guinea became 0.0595, Liberia, 0.0440 and Sierra Leone, 0.0571. The before and after transmissibility results in comparison with the indicate that intervention was effective in containing the EVD epidemic. The vulnerability decreased drastically after intervention.

Keywords:
Ebola virus disease epidemic queueing network transmission control

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