The Climate-Resource-Food Security Nexus: Analyzing the Cumulative Impact of Recurrent Disasters on Somali Communities’ Livelihood Sustainability

Abdirashid Elmi^1, and Abdisalaam Elmi²

¹Department of Environmental Sciences, College of Life Sciences, Kuwait University, P.O. Box 5969, Safat 13060, Kuwait

²Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Somali National University, Somalia

Cite this paper:
Abdirashid Elmi and Abdisalaam Elmi. The Climate-Resource-Food Security Nexus: Analyzing the Cumulative Impact of Recurrent Disasters on Somali Communities’ Livelihood Sustainability. Journal of Food Security. 2026; 14(2):46-52. doi: 10.12691/jfs-14-2-2

Abstract

Somalia exemplifies the destructive synergy between climate, conflict, and resource shortages, which severely impede economic and social progress. This manuscript examines key weather events, trends, and humanitarian interventions. The temporal pattern of drought occurrence in Somalia has undergone a significantly alarming shift over recent decades. The recurrence interval has contracted from an historical average of once per decade to approximately two to four episodes per decade, progressively diminishing the adaptive capacity of agro-pastoral communities to withstand consecutive environmental shocks. Similarly, frequency and intensity of floods have increased, and due to increased population density in flood-prone areas and land degradation (deforestation, soil erosion), large number of people have become internally displaced. This paper concludes that recurrent disasters have ravaged the very foundations of Somali livelihoods, obliterating crops, inundating farmlands, and decimating livestock, which are essential for both sustenance and economic survival.

Keywords:
Conflict Drought Floods Food security Human mobility

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

References:

[1]	Elmi, A. A. and Barise, A., “The Somali Conflict: Root causes, obstacles, and peace-building strategies”. African Security Review, 15(1), 32–54. Jul 2010.
[2]	Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN). Rankings // Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative. University of Notre Dame. Available at: , 2024.
[3]	IPCC ‘Special Report on Climate Change and Land’ pp360-363.
[4]	Gemenne, F., Barnett, J., Adger, W.N. and Dabelko, G.D. “Climate and security: evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda”. Climatic Change, 123, 1–9. March 2014.
[5]	Food and Agriculture Organization. (FAO). 2018. Rebuilding resilient and sustainable agriculture in Somalia. Available at: [Accessed February 2026].
[6]	Global Forest Watch, 2023, ‘Deforestation in Somalia’ Available at: [Accessed 14 January 2026].
[7]	Maxwell, D. and Fitzpatrick, M. “The 2011 famine in Somalia: Context, causes, and Consequences”. Global Food Security, 1(1), 1–7. Dec 2012.
[8]	Food and Agriculture Organization. (FAO). 2011. The 2011 famine in the Horn of Africa: The case of Somalia. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: [Accessed February 2026].
[9]	UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA). (2024). Somalia: 2023 Flash and Riverine Floods Situation Report No. 3 (as of 13 July 2023). Available at: [Accessed April 2026].
[10]	Annual Disaster Statistical Review. (2011). Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2011: The numbers and trends - World. ReliefWeb. Available at: [Accessed March 2026].
[11]	Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment, 2017. Somalia drought impact & needs assessment. Available at: [Accessed February 2026].
[12]	Elmi, A. A. “Prospects of food security in Somalia under looming climatic changes”. Heritage Institute for Policy Studies (HIPS). Nov 2021.
[13]	Moon, MP. “How does climate change affect the food security and vulnerability of women? A systematic review of gender perspectives”. Front. Clim. 6,1374469.
[14]	Women at Risk: “The Gendered Dimension of Climate Change” Harvard International Review, 2025. [Accessed April 2026].
[15]	Ripamonti, D., Dowd, C., Patel, R., Gleason, K. and Polzin, S.S. “Non-state armed groups as food system actors in Somalia and Haiti”. Conflict, Security & Development, 24, 339–367. Jul 2024.
[16]	Burke, B.M., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J.A. and Lobel, D.B. “Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(49), pp.20670–20674. Dec 2019.
[17]	Martin-Shields, C.P. and Stojetz, W.W. “Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policymaking on food security and conflict”. World Development, 119, 150–164. Jul 2019.