Review Analysis of the Potential of 50% Increase in Global Food Production by 2050 for Projected 10-Billion World Population

Mohamed Sippo^{1, 2}, Juana Paul Moiwo^2, , Foday Turay^{2, 3} and Tuwoh Weiwoh Moiwo⁴

¹Technical Division, Food Systems Resilience Program, Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Sierra Leone

²Department of Agricultural Engineering, School of Technology, Njala University, Sierra Leone

³Engineering Division, Institute of Agricultural Research, Sierra Leone

⁴Department of Agriculture General, School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, Njala University, Sierra Leone

Cite this paper:
Mohamed Sippo, Juana Paul Moiwo, Foday Turay and Tuwoh Weiwoh Moiwo. Review Analysis of the Potential of 50% Increase in Global Food Production by 2050 for Projected 10-Billion World Population. Journal of Food Security. 2025; 13(4):124-133. doi: 10.12691/jfs-13-4-1

Abstract

The oft-cited projection that global food production must increase by 50‒70% by 2050 to meet the demands of a larger, wealthier population presents a defining challenge for humanity. This target, however, is frequently discussed without a comprehensive critical assessment of its biophysical feasibility and environmental consequences. This study is a systematic review analysis to synthesize the extensive and sometimes contradictory body of scientific literature evaluating the potential to achieve this increase sustainably. The method involved a rigorous search of three main databases (Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed) for peer-reviewed studies published between 2000‒2023, using explicit criteria for inclusion and a thematic synthesis approach to integrate findings from agronomy, climate science, and economics. The review identified two primary production pathways ― land expansion and yield intensification. The evidence conclusively showed that the scope for sustainable agricultural expansion was severely limited to less than 10% of the required increase, as most suitable lands were already in use or constitute ecologically vital forests and grasslands. Consequently, the burden fell overwhelmingly on closing yield gaps on existing farmlands. While global yield gap analyses suggested a theoretical potential for a 45‒70% production increase, the synthesis revealed that socio-economic barriers in smallholder systems, coupled with the pervasive effects of climate change (projected to reduce global yields by 5‒10%) significantly constrained realistically achievable gains. The most pivotal finding of the review was that a production-centric approach was fundamentally insufficient and high-risk. Literature overwhelmingly demonstrated that the demand-side interventions were not merely complementary but essential prerequisites for viable solutions. A 25‒50% reduction in food loss and waste and a global shift towards more plant-based diets could reduce the required production increase by half, transforming an insurmountable challenge into a manageable one. Ultimately, the review concluded that 50% increase through production means alone was highly improbable without severe environmental degradation. However, achieving food security for 9.7 billion people was possible through integrated systems approach that aggressively pursued sustainable intensification on the supply side while simultaneously implementing policies that reduce waste and promote sustainable dietary choices on the demand side. The paradigm shift from simply increasing output to holistically managing the entire food system was the only viable pathway to meeting human needs within the planetary boundaries.

Keywords:
Food Security Sustainable Intensification Climate Change Dietary Shifts Food Loss and Waste Planetary Boundaries

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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