Arequipa’s Water in the Short Future: a Hydrologic Outlook in an Arid Peruvian Andes Region Utilizing Hyperresolution RCM and CREST-VEC Model Simulations Under SSP5-8.5

Mengye Chen^1, , Yongjie Huang², Xiao-Ming Hu², Ming Xue^{2, 3}, Yang Hong¹, Hector Mayol Novoa⁴, Elinor R. Martin³, Renee A. McPherson³, Siyu Zhu¹, Andres Vitaliano Peraz⁴, José Luis Ticona Jara⁵ and Isaac Yanqui Morales⁴

¹School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Engineering, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA

²Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA

³School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA

⁴Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa, Arequipa, Peru

⁵Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú (SENAMHI), Arequipa, Peru

Cite this paper:
Mengye Chen, Yongjie Huang, Xiao-Ming Hu, Ming Xue, Yang Hong, Hector Mayol Novoa, Elinor R. Martin, Renee A. McPherson, Siyu Zhu, Andres Vitaliano Peraz, José Luis Ticona Jara and Isaac Yanqui Morales. Arequipa’s Water in the Short Future: a Hydrologic Outlook in an Arid Peruvian Andes Region Utilizing Hyperresolution RCM and CREST-VEC Model Simulations Under SSP5-8.5. American Journal of Water Resources. 2025; 13(2):51-62. doi: 10.12691/ajwr-13-2-3

Abstract

Climate change is anticipated to drastically impact South America differently in different regions. As a climate-vulnerable area, the Peruvian Andes region is projected to have hydrological changes that can potentially devastate the region. Leveraging the output of an existing hyperresolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) and a state-of-art hydrological model (Coupled Routing of Excessive STorage, CREST), this study examines changes in hydrological conditions in 2075-2079 compared to its semi-current state in 2015-2019 in Arequipa region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The region would face a 19.8% runoff reduction, 83%-86% averaged streamflow reduction, and 37.8 days of wet season duration reduction. The Rio Chili would experience complete “no water” events in 2078 and 2079, and all the 1^st order stream reaches would be dry more than 50% of the time between 2075 and 2079 compared to less than 40% of the time in 2015-2019. However, the flood risk would not decrease in the future, with the City of Arequipa expected to face at least one flood event that is more severe than its 2017 and 2019 floods, and Rio Colca would have many more flood events in the future.

Keywords:
Regional Climate Model Hydrologic model Peruvian Andes future streamflow

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