An Assessment of Three Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Dano Catchment under Future Climate Conditions

Yira Yacouba^1, , Bossa Yaovi Aymar², Ngom L. A. L. C. A. Guedji³, Hounkpè Jean², Hounkpatin L. Ozias⁴, Mouhamed Idrissou⁵ and Sintondji O. Luc²

¹Department of Natural Substances, Applied Science and Technology Research Institute—IRSAT/CNRST, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

²Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, National Institute of Water, University of Abomey–Calavi, Cotonou 01, Benin

³Department of Water Engineering, Pan African University institute of Water and Energy Sciences, Tlemcen, Algeria

⁴Department of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden

⁵West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use-WASCAL, University of Lomé, Lomé, Togo

Cite this paper:
Yira Yacouba, Bossa Yaovi Aymar, Ngom L. A. L. C. A. Guedji, Hounkpè Jean, Hounkpatin L. Ozias, Mouhamed Idrissou and Sintondji O. Luc. An Assessment of Three Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Dano Catchment under Future Climate Conditions. American Journal of Water Resources. 2023; 11(2):79-87. doi: 10.12691/ajwr-11-2-4

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of future climate change on three water related ecosystem services (WRES) in the Dano catchment. The conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV light was successfully calibrated (NSE = 0.945, R² = 0.945, and KGE= 0.948) and validated (NSE = 0.648, R² = 0.798, and KGE= 0.551) and demonstrated a good agreement between observed and simulated variables. The projected climate change signal in the catchment was analyzed using the WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulations (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M under RCP 4.5) between a refence period (1985-2005) and two future periods (2020-2049 & 2070-2099). Compared to the reference period, both climate models show an increase in temperature of +1.9 to +2.8 °C by 2020-2049, and at the end of the century 3.2 to 5.4 °C. Precipitation trends of + 10 to +30 % in the middle of the century and between +37 to +51.4% towards 2100 are projected. The projected annual discharges change signals show an increase of +25 % to +68 % by 2049, while at the end of the century this increase exceeds +80.65. The simulated hydrological changes were translated into changes in WRES provision (hydropower, domestic water consumption, and ecological flow). The projected discharge increase will translate in an increase of hydropower generation potential but this increase in discharge will not be enough to meet future additional domestic water demand. Domestic water supply will decrease because of population growth. Therefore, the projected increase in future discharge will not be sufficient to counterbalance the additional water demand associated to population development.

Keywords:
Climate change hydrological modelling Water related ecosystems services HBV-light Burkina Faso

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