Models for Forecasting the Demand and Supply of Electricity in Nigeria

Benjamin Oyediran Oyelami^1, and Adedamola adedoyin Adewumi²

¹Theoretical Physics, National Mathematical Centre, Abuja, Nigeria

²Department of Mathematics, University of Abuja, Nigeria

Cite this paper:
Benjamin Oyediran Oyelami and Adedamola adedoyin Adewumi. Models for Forecasting the Demand and Supply of Electricity in Nigeria. American Journal of Modeling and Optimization. 2014; 2(1):25-33. doi: 10.12691/ajmo-2-1-4

Abstract

In this paper, the Garch model is used to determine the market volatility in the demand and supply chains of electricity in Nigeria for 36 years, i.e. from 1970 to 2005 from the historic data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics. The Harvey logistic model is used to predict the demand and supply of electricity in the country from 2005 to 2026. From the results obtained, the demand and supply of electricity show mixture of spikes because of mean reverse behavior about the mean values and the demand outweighed the supply. The consequence of this is that there is vast market prosperity for investors in the power sector in Nigeria. It is estimated that about 317.5 billion US dollars business opportunities are available to new independent power stations in Nigeria.

Keywords:
demand supply electricity garch Arima Harvey logistic model

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