Numerical Solution of the Total Probability Theorem in a Three Diensional Earthquake Source Domain for Developing Seismic Hazard Map and Hazard Spectrum

Lalu Makrup^1, , Masyhur Irsyam², I Wayan Sengara² and Hendriyawan³

¹Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic University of Indonesia, Yogyakarta

²Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Technology Bandung

³Department of Ocean Engineering, Institute of Technology Bandung

Cite this paper:
Lalu Makrup, Masyhur Irsyam, I Wayan Sengara and Hendriyawan. Numerical Solution of the Total Probability Theorem in a Three Diensional Earthquake Source Domain for Developing Seismic Hazard Map and Hazard Spectrum. American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture. 2015; 3(5):158-164. doi: 10.12691/ajcea-3-5-2

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is a method of assessing seismic threat on a region in the earth surface. Total probability theorem was utilized here has solved on earthquake source domain and employed it in seismic hazard analysis. Solution of the theorem is performed in a computer program and has been used to develop the Hazard Map and the Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS). The map is peak ground acceleration (PGA) of Sumatra Indonesia with hazard level 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and the UHS is from a site in Surabaya Indonesia with hazard level 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The two result of the program are verified by the two previous study results. The result of the program is very similar to two other studies.

Keywords:
development probability seismic hazard seismic source map

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