Application of a Hybrid Cellular Automaton – Markov (CA-Markov) Model in Land-Use Change Prediction: A Case Study of Saddle Creek Drainage Basin, Florida

Praveen Subedi^1, , Kabiraj Subedi² and Bina Thapa³

¹School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL

²Department of Geography, P.N. Campus, Tribhuvan University, Nepal

³Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL

Cite this paper:
Praveen Subedi, Kabiraj Subedi and Bina Thapa. Application of a Hybrid Cellular Automaton – Markov (CA-Markov) Model in Land-Use Change Prediction: A Case Study of Saddle Creek Drainage Basin, Florida. Applied Ecology and Environmental Sciences. 2013; 1(6):126-132. doi: 10.12691/aees-1-6-5

Abstract

We utilized spatio-temporal data to investigate the applicability of a hybrid (CA- Markov) model in predicting land-use change in Saddle Creek drainage basin in Florida. Agreement statistics (Kappa) between the actual land-use and that predicted by our model showed an acceptable level of prediction accuracy. This demonstrated the validity of the model in land-use change prediction in our study. Our model predicted a notable increase in the urban areas (47.3 % to 49.4%) and transportation facilities (3.7% to 5 %) from 2006 to 2015. On the contrary, agricultural areas are predicted to decline from 14.4 % to 12.3 % between these periods.

Keywords:
CA-Markov model land-use change prediction accuracy

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