Prediction of Ozone Concentrations According the Box-Jenkins Methodology for Assekrem Area

Hicham Beldjillali^1, , Nacef Lamri² and Nour El Islam Bachari²

¹Department of Applied Statistics, Ecole Nationale des Statistiques et Economie Appliquée. 11, chemin Doudou Mokhtar Benaknoun-Alger

²Department of Ecology and Environment, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Science and Technology, Houari Boumedienne, USTHB, BP 32 El Alia, Bab Ezzouar Algiers

Cite this paper:
Hicham Beldjillali, Nacef Lamri and Nour El Islam Bachari. Prediction of Ozone Concentrations According the Box-Jenkins Methodology for Assekrem Area. Applied Ecology and Environmental Sciences. 2016; 4(2):48-52. doi: 10.12691/aees-4-2-3

Abstract

The Box-Jenkins approach has been used to construct the forecast model of surface ozone (O₃) concentrations. This forecast is important for monitoring O₃ concentrations at a regional scale as well as at local level. We used the monthly average O₃ concentrations covering the period going from January 2003 to December 2011. The accuracy of the models has been carried out with predicting and analyzing the average monthly O₃ concentrations for 2012. By comparing the measured O₃ concentrations values and the forecasted values, the AR(1) model is satisfactorily predicts monthly average O₃ concentrations in the Assekrem area and the predictions of this model are loosely consistent with the measured values. The developed model can be used to forecast atmospheric tropospheric ozone concentrations in Assekrem area.

Keywords:
Ozone Assekrem (Tamanrasset) Box-Jenkins methodology Autoregressive models

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