1Department of Public Finance, Academy of Finance, Hanoi, Vietnam
Journal of Business and Management Sciences.
2020,
Vol. 8 No. 2, 61-66
DOI: 10.12691/jbms-8-2-4
Copyright © 2020 Science and Education PublishingCite this paper: Nguyen Thanh Giang. Long-run Relationship of Economic Growth with Consumption, Unemployment Rates and Saving Rates in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Vietnam.
Journal of Business and Management Sciences. 2020; 8(2):61-66. doi: 10.12691/jbms-8-2-4.
Correspondence to: Nguyen Thanh Giang, Department of Public Finance, Academy of Finance, Hanoi, Vietnam. Email:
Corresponding author: Nguyenthanhgiang_aof@gmail.comAbstract
The Keynesian macroeconomic model implies that household expenditures and savings have significant long-run impacts on economic growth by affecting total expenditures. Therefore, policymakers should determine and apply appropriate policies to maintain these variables. For this purpose, the long-run relationship of economic growth with consumption, unemployment and saving rates in Vietnam is analyzed with the time data method using annual data for the period 1996-2017. Consumption appears to have the most impact on economic growth in accordance with the estimation results of a co-integration test from an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL model). In long run, an increase of 1% in consumption expenditures decreases economic growth by 0.41%. A 1% increase in saving rates increases economic growth by 0.0009%. While an increase of 1% in unemployment rates decreases economic growth by 0.043%. Our results demonstrate that there exists only long run relationship among economic growth, consumption, saving and unemployment rates for Vietnam, but not in short run.
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