Article citationsMore >>

MBAYE, M.L., SYLLA, M.B. and TALL, M. (2019). Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0°C Global Warming on Water Balance Components over Senegal in West Africa. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 712.

has been cited by the following article:

Article

Projected Changes in the Rainfall Annual Cycle over the Senegal River Basin Using CMIP5 bias-Corrected Simulations

1Ecole Supérieure des Sciences et Techniques de l’Ingénieur (ESTI), Université Amadou Mahtar Mbow (UAM), Dakar, Senegal

2Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Océan – Siméon Fongang (LPAO-SF), Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique (ESP), Université Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD), Dakar-Fann, Senegal

3Laboratoire d’Océanographie, des Sciences de l’Environnement et du Climat (LOSEC), UFR Sciences et Technologies, Université Assane Seck de Ziguinchor (UASZ), Ziguinchor, Senegal

4Institut Supérieur des Sciences de l’Éducation de Guinée (ISSEG), Conakry, Guinea


American Journal of Environmental Protection. 2022, Vol. 10 No. 1, 41-46
DOI: 10.12691/env-10-1-5
Copyright © 2022 Science and Education Publishing

Cite this paper:
Moussa Diakhaté, Mamadou Lamine Mbaye, Ibrahima Camara, Mamadou Baïlo Barry. Projected Changes in the Rainfall Annual Cycle over the Senegal River Basin Using CMIP5 bias-Corrected Simulations. American Journal of Environmental Protection. 2022; 10(1):41-46. doi: 10.12691/env-10-1-5.

Correspondence to: Moussa  Diakhaté, Ecole Supérieure des Sciences et Techniques de l’Ingénieur (ESTI), Université Amadou Mahtar Mbow (UAM), Dakar, Senegal. Email: moussa.diakhate@uam.edu.sn

Abstract

This study provides a synthetic analysis of the current state and the future changes in the rainfall annual cycle over the Senegal river basin (SRB) using observed data from the SIEREM (Système d’Informations Environnementales sur les Ressources en Eau et leur Modélisation) database, and 29 CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5) simulations. The output of the models are bias-corrected using the observational data as a reference. This process revealed the added value of the bias correction that has reduced considerably the biases in the amplitude of the rainfall annual cycle. With the corrected simulations, future changes (by 2050 and 2100) in the seasonal variation of rainfall are analyzed under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and over each of the 7 sub-basins (SB) of the SRB. A decrease of about 20% in rainfall amount over the first phase of the monsoon season (May-August) is expected under the scenario RCP8.5, leading to a displacement of the monsoon peak from August to September. This change is shown to affect the least humid SBs (SB 3-7).

Keywords