eng Science and Education Publishing Journal of Finance and Economics 2328-7276 2025-06-08 13 2 80 87 10.12691/jfe-13-2-3 JFE20251323 article Mohamad Saad saadmohamad313@gmail.com 1 Saeed Bajalan 2 Reza Tehrani 2 Lebanese International University, School of Business, Department of Finance, Beirut, Lebanon University of Tehran, College of Management, Faculty of Accounting and Finance, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran This study examined how changes in the Net Present Value (NPV) of a company's projects impact fluctuations in its fair stock value. An experiment utilized a simulated stock market with a virtual company (Ahoo Co.) and a group of 20 finance experts (Evaluators) who predicted Ahoo's stock prices to serve as a fair value benchmark. Robust regression analysis revealed a statistically significant positive relationship between changes in Ahoo's project NPVs and changes in the Evaluators' predicted stock values. The NPV coefficient was highly significant, and NPV explained 60% of the variance in predicted stock values. These findings support the hypothesis that a company's fair stock value fluctuations can be significantly explained by fluctuations in the expected NPV from its projects. The study concludes NPV is a crucial determinant of stock valuation, with implications for investment strategies, corporate decision-making, valuation modeling, and market efficiency. Key limitations include the small Evaluator sample size and generalizability issues. Further research with larger samples is recommended to strengthen reliability. https://pubs.sciepub.com/jfe/13/2/3/jfe-13-2-3.pdf Net Present Value (NPV) Stock Valuation Fair Value Regression Analysis Simulated Stock Market