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Djafar, F. and Hassan, M.K. (2012). Dynamics of push and pull factors of migrant workers in developing countries: The case of Indonesian workers in Malaysia. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 4(12), 703-711.

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Article

An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico

1Department of Economics and Finance, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, USA

2Economic and Market Analysis Division, United States Department of Housing and Urban Development, Chicago, USA


Journal of Finance and Economics. 2015, Vol. 3 No. 1, 20-28
DOI: 10.12691/jfe-3-1-4
Copyright © 2015 Science and Education Publishing

Cite this paper:
Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke, Diana Villavicencio. An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. Journal of Finance and Economics. 2015; 3(1):20-28. doi: 10.12691/jfe-3-1-4.

Correspondence to: Thomas  M. Fullerton Jr., Department of Economics and Finance, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, USA. Email: tomf@utep.edu

Abstract

An econometric model using time series analysis techniques is employed to model and forecast population changes in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. The model focuses on the interplay between economic and demographic variables. Individual, cointegrated equations are generated to account for the components of population change - births, deaths, net domestic and net international migration. Birth and death equations prove easier to model because of stable changes from period to period in relation to income levels and national demographic trends. Net migration equations were more difficult to model as economic conditions, specifically labor market conditions, influence changes over time. Predefined exogenous variables are used to generate out-of-sample simulations for the individual components of population change. Using those results, total population projections are estimated until the year 2018. Doña Ana County is projected to witness a slowdown in population growth, primarily as a consequence of increased domestic out-migration.

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