Frank Gronwald^1,, Shoou-Yuh Chang¹

The need for government regulators and industrialized sources to determine the level of air pollution is essential. Air dispersion models are often used to determine the concentration of a pollutant. However changing conditions and several assumptions made by the models limit their accuracy at various times. This research was performed by combining four different air dispersion models (Gaussian Plume, Variable K Theory, Box, and AFTOX) into a superensemble. Since the superensemble is typically more accurate than its member models, the calculated result should be a more accurate prediction under any condition. One of the key parameters in the formation of the superensemble is whether the superensemble calculations for that range are to be fixed or continuous throughout. In the interest of evaluating performance, the change in accuracy for each member model and superensemble was measured through determining RMSE.

Superensemble, Air Dispersion Modeling, , Brier Score, RMSE