Brijesh Sathian1,
,
Asis De1,
Padam Simkhada2,
Kalpana Malla1,
Arnab Ghosh1,
Sahisnuta Basnet1,
Bedanta Roy1,
Indrajit Banerjee1,
H S Supram1,
Suresh Devkota1 1Faculty, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara, Nepal
2Faculty, Centre for Public Health, Liverpool John Moores University, UK
American Journal of Public Health Research.
2015,
Vol. 3 No. 4A, 27-30
DOI: 10.12691/ajphr-3-4A-5
Copyright © 2015 Science and Education PublishingCite this paper: Brijesh Sathian, Asis De, Padam Simkhada, Kalpana Malla, Arnab Ghosh, Sahisnuta Basnet, Bedanta Roy, Indrajit Banerjee, H S Supram, Suresh Devkota. Time Trend of Pneumonia in under Five Children of Nepal.
American Journal of Public Health Research. 2015; 3(4A):27-30. doi: 10.12691/ajphr-3-4A-5.
Correspondence to: Brijesh Sathian, Faculty, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara, Nepal. Email:
drsathian@gmail.com.Abstract
Globally, Pneumonia is the leading communicable disease which is the reason of fatality in children. In 2013, there was approximately 935 000 child death in less than 5 years old because of Pneumonia, which was 15% of all the deaths in children. The scenario is more or less same in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The objective of the study was to collate information from existing data and chart out the trends of the incidence of Pneumonia (mild + severe) per 1,000 children under five years (new visits) in the future. A secondary data analysis of the incidence of Pneumonia (mild + severe) per 1,000 children under five years (new visits) in Nepal was done between 2005 to 2014. The survey was conducted under the administrative supervision of the population division of the Ministry of Health and Population (MOHP). Curve fitting method was used to find out the convenient model. The data was analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) for Windows Version 16.0 (SPSS Inc; Chicago, IL, USA). A p-value of < 0.05 (two-tailed) was used to establish statistical significance. Excluding the constant term in the equation, the best fitted model was cubic, for the prediction of incidence of Pneumonia (mild + severe) per 1,000 children under five years (new visits). It is estimated that there will be 331 with 95% CI (0,1000) cases of Pneumonia (mild + severe) per 1,000 children under five years during 2020 in Nepal. The year wise incidence of Pneumonia (mild + severe) per 1,000 children under five years (new visits) in Nepal is having an increasing trend. The result provides reference data for organizing, planning, and evaluation of childhood pneumonia control program. Strengthening the health care delivery system and community-based prevention strategies and case management will facilitate to trim down pneumonia cases and the overall burden of this public health threat.
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