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Analysis of the Material Flow of New Members of the European Union

Lembo Tanning*, Toivo Tanning

TTK University of Applied Sciences, Tallinn, Estonia, EU

Abstract: With regard to acute political and economic situation in Eastern Europe, with the European Union (EU) and Russia on mutual economic partial blockade, has become very topical, what is the position of material in the former Soviet bloc countries. The purpose of this article is to analyse the material or resource flow of new EU states, the main emphasis the Baltic countries and to compare them on the EU level. Energy security is always one of the most important problems in the EU. The EU and including the Baltic countries are poor of material and energy region. The analysis showed that the greater use of resources does not always lead to economic growth. Effective use of resources is different in from country to country. How far is the use of these lands resource, including the 2009. economic crisis? What are the prospects for a partial boycott of resources? What are the lessons from the resource flow?

Keywords: material flow, domestic material consumption, fossil energy materials, imports, exports, regression analysis, Baltic countries

Received October 13, 2014; Revised October 23, 2014; Accepted October 26, 2014

Citation: Lembo Tanning, Toivo Tanning, Analysis of the Material Flow of New Members of the European Union. Journal of Behavioural Economics Finance Entrepreneurship Accounting and Transport, 2 (5). 104-115. January 2014. doi:10.12691/jbe-2-5-1

1. Introduction

A resource-efficient Europe is one of the main objectives of the Europe 2020 Strategy [1], which aims at guiding the effective use of resources to achieve sustainable economic growth.

We analyze the material flow problems of new European Union (EU) from Baltic and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE-8) or former Soviet-bloc countries, with the exception of and . The Baltic States are part of the former Soviet Union a half century. After the collapse of the Soviet-bloc in 1989–90, Baltic and CEE-8 countries became fully independent again. This will help them to better understand the economic backwardness of place Western Europe, the countries of the Western civilization.

The history and economic background of his country's is more detail in previous earlier publications of authors. [2-12].

Natural resources underpin the functioning of the European economy and our quality of life. These resources include raw materials such as fuels, minerals and metals but also food, soil, water, air, biomass and ecosystems. The pressures on resources are increasing. Intensive use of the world's resources puts pressure on our planet and threatens the security of supply. Continuing our current patterns of resource use is not an option. In response to these changes, increasing resource efficiency will be key to securing growth and jobs for Europe. It will bring major economic opportunities, improve productivity, drive down costs and boost competitiveness. [1]

All economic systems utilize a variety of resources. The scarcity of resources forces countries, companies and people make a variety of choices. That's what we look at on the basis of the new EU Member States or former Soviet-bloc countries countries.

The theoretical foundations are given in more detail the works of other authors [13,14,15,16,17] and Eurostat [1].

2. Methodology

The indicator DMC is defined as the total amount of material directly used in an economy. DMC equals Direct Material Input (DMI) minus exports. DMI measures the direct input of materials for the use in the economy. DMI equals Domestic Extraction (DE) plus imports [18,19].

Domestic material consumption by material of Eurostat is in environmental accounts.

Economy-wide material flow accounts (EW-MFA) compile material flow inputs into national economies. EW-MFA cover all solid, gaseous, and liquid material inputs, except for water and air, measured in mass units per year. Like the system of national accounts, EW-MFA constitute a multi-purpose information system. The detailed material flows provide a rich empirical database for numerous analytical purposes. EW-MFA are used to derive various material flow indicators such as:

Domestic extraction (DEU): total amount of material extracted for further processing in the economy, by resident units from the natural environment;

Imports (IMP): imports of products in their simple mass weight;

Direct material input (DMI): measures the direct input of material into the economy; it includes all materials which are of economic value and which are availble for use in production and consumption activities (=DEU+IMP);

Exports (EXP): exports of products in their simple mass weight;

Domestic material consumption (DMC): measures the total amount of material actually consumed domestically by resident units (=DEU+IMP-EXP).

Note: IMP and EXP are distinguished into extra-EU-trade and total trade.

In order to compare the performance over time and across various countries the second resource productivity ratio employing GDP in chain-linked volumes has been indexed to the year 2000. This index allows a comparison of countries' resource productivity performance [20].

This can be expressed in monetary terms, as monetary return per unit of resource. Here in million or thousand tonnes.

Material resources are divided: biomass (MF1), metal ores (gross ores) (MF2), non-metallic minerals (MF3), fossil energy materials/carriers (MF4), other products (MF5) and waste for final treatment and disposal (MF6). Here we look also subgroups of MF4: liquid and gaseous energy materials/carriers (MF42); crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids (MF421) and natural gas (MF422).[19]

In summary, the main indicators are: Domestic Extraction Used (DEU). Domestic Material Consumption (DMC). Exports (EXP). Imports (IMP). Direct Material Inputs (DMI).

[picture] | (1)

[picture] | (2)

[5]

Econometrics is the application of , , and, more recently, , to economic data and is described as the branch of that aims to give content to economic relations. [21] The basic tool for econometrics is the , but we use the complicated nonlinear model, which can perform more specific conclusions.

The processing of data is used to regression analysis. Regression analyzis are statistical analysis procedures that have the goal of relationships between a dependent and one or more independent variables to model. They are particularly used when relationships to describe quantitatively or values of the dependent variables are to predict [22,23].

Mathematically, the relationship between the independent variable x and the dependent variable y are represented as:

[picture] | (3)

[picture] | (4)

In general, we can model the expected value of y as an nth degree polynomial, yielding the general polynomial regression model:

[picture] | (5)

Most authors using simple linear regression. It's convenient to use, but as a rule it is not well-characterized complex processes. We use polynomial regression, which gives a much more precise picture. Numerical values of the parameters used to find the indirectly least squares method or ordinary least squares. We are a non-linear correlation [22,23].

For this purpose we use the computer program. Microsoft Excel provides a set of data analysis tools— called the Analysis ToolPak— that you can use to save steps when you develop complex statistical or engineering analyses.

All figures are the authors’ illustration.

3. Analysis of Material Flow

3.1. Material Flow Analyses by Total Domestic Material Consumption

Next we analized material flow in EU – 27, CEE-8 and Baltic countries of tonnes.

Table 1. Total Domestic Material Consumption (DMC). Thousands tonnes [18]

Figure 1. Total Domestic Material Consumption of Baltic States. Million tonnes [18]

Before the economic crisis, GDP growth rose by analogy with DMC. The peak was reached in 2007 - 2008. 2009. followed by a decline, especially large in . In the following years the economy grew, and with it DMC or vice versa the better DMC used to cause growth. For more of the answer gives the material flow components detailed analysis.

DMC trend lines of Baltic States and next of CEE-8 countries:

[picture] | (6)

[picture] | (7)

[picture] | (8)

Figure 2. DMC of Poland and Romania. Million tonnes [18]

[picture] | (9)

[picture] | (10)

Figure 3. DMC of CEE-6 countries. Million tonnes [18]

[picture] | (11)

[picture] | (12)

[picture] | (13)

[picture] | (14)

[picture] | (15)

[picture] | (16)

These theoretical trend lines (4-degree polynomial) is characterized by changes in the Baltic States and CEE-8 DMC. Also, they are like the cyclical nature of the changes in GDP. However, these R² of Baltic States are smaller than the GDP R², thus a little weaker link.

This section is focused on the third (non-EU Member States) countries on imported fossil fuels, especially crude oil imports, and in particular for the purchase of natural gas from Russia.

Table 2. Components of DMC. Total imports resource, thousands tonnes [18]

Resources imports are all increased, more than others in Latvia, and in Lithuania.

Table 3. Components of DMC. Total exports resource, thousands tonnes [18]

Total exports resource are also of Baltic and CEE-8 countries growth, in Lithuania and in Latvia over two times, but in Estonia 42%.

Table 4. Material flow accounts, thousands of tonnes, 2012 [24]

Here are the EU, the major countries and import and export of materials.

Figure 4. Total import and export of the EU-27 and Germany [18]

Trend lines of import and export of the EU-27 and Germany run practical parallel. EU-27 difference was accordingly one billion ja 430 million tonnes. EU-27 import was in 2000 1.6 and in 2012 1.5 times larger than exports. Germany difference was accordingly 1.8 and 1.6 times.

In 2012 was import 3243 million and export 2220 million tonnes of the EU-27; import of Germany was accordingly 602 million and export 376 million tonnes.

The EU-27 total imports of material in 2012 was 3,243 million tonnes and export 2,220 million tonnes. IMP_XEU27 was 1 581 and EXP_XEU27 638 million tonnes.

EU-28 exports of primary goods (food & drink; raw materials; energy) was in Jan-Jun 2014 147,5 billion and imports 295,9 billion EUR [25].

In contrast to the monetary value of trade EU's physical trade balance is asymmetric. The EU imports three times more goods by weight from the rest of the world than it exports. The amounts of physical imports into the EU are dominated by fossil fuels and other raw products which typically have significantly lower values per kilogram [13].

Figure 5. Total resource of Estonia, thousands tonnes [18]

Table 5. Domestic Extraction Used, thousands tonnes [18]

Domestic Extraction Used (DEU) of Baltic countries in tones growth, in Estonia 1.8, in Latvia and in Lithuania 1,4 times.

DMC of Estonia increased with the high growth GDP until 2007 80%, or 15,799 thousand tones and subsequent decreased a little. The 2012 level was nearly the same as in 2007. The increase occurred mainly at the expense of imports, 3517 thousand tones. From 2000 to 2012, imports increased by 63% and 81% DEU.

Table 6. Total resource of Estonia, thousands tonnes [18]

Figure 6. Total resource of Latvia and Lithuania, thousands tonnes [18]

Table 7. Total resource of Latvia, thousands tonnes [18]

Economic (GDP) growth until 2007 of was the EU's biggest. Her DMC grew in the same period 42% or 14,586 thousand tonnes and declined in subsequent years to levels of 2004. The increase occurred mainly at the expense of imports, 7,770 thousand tonnes. From 2000 to 2012 exports grew steadily, a total of 111% and imports of 123%. What was the whole, the growth of 29% until 2007. Total growth of DEU was until 2007 by 29%.

Table 8. Total resource of Lithuania, thousands tonnes [18]

Also economic (GDP) growth of was very high until 2008. Her DMC grew in the same period 77% or 22,606 thousand tonnes and declined in subsequent years to levels of 2004. Growth occurred both imports and exports at the expense of continuously, in period 2000 to 2012 by 104% and 123%.

In summary, total DMC and DEU of Estonia growth. Lithuania and Latvia were large abrupt changes, peak was before the crisis, and the biggest drop one year after the crisis.

Next we look material flow accounts in raw material equivalents (RME) of EU 27.

Table 9. Material flow accounts of EU-27, thousand tonnes [24]

Figure 7. Material flow accounts of EU 27, thousand tonnes [24]

3.2. Material Flow Analyses by Key Components of DMC

Next we analyze the development of the key components of DMC during 2000 to 2012.

Table 10. Domestic material consumption by material - 1 000 tonnes. Biomass (MF1) [19]

Biomass (MF1) divided: Crops (excluding fodder crops) (MF11); Crop residues (used), fodder crops and grazed biomass (MF12); Wood (MF13); Wild fish catch, aquatic plants/animals, hunting and gathering (MF14); Live animals, and animal products (MF15) and Products mainly from biomass (MF16).

Biomass of the EU 27 and declined slightly over the analyzed period. Biomass of the EU 27 in 2012 was 1.693 million tonnes, over the 12 years it decreased by 3.7%. had a small and double biomass consumption growth. However, consumed of biomass three times less than and .

Figure 8. DMC by MF3 - bn tonnes [5]

Figure 9. DMC by MF1 and MF4 - bn tonnes [19]

Figure 10. DMC by biomass 1 000 tonnes [19]

Table 11. Domestic material consumption by material,1 000 tonnes. Metal ores (gross ores) [19]

Metal ores (gross ores) (MF2) divided: iron (MF21); non-ferrous metal (MF22): copper (MF221), nickel (MF222), lead (MF223), zinc (MF224), tin (MF225) and other; products mainly from metals (MF23).

EU-27 metal ores consumption in 2012 was 237 million tonnes, over the 12 years it decreased by 15.7%. Consumption of metal ores in the Baltic countries was very small and with large fluctuations.

Table 12. Domestic non-metallic minerals consumption - Million tonnes. [19]

Figure 11. DMC by Metal ores (gross ores) of EU-27, million tonnes. [19]

Figure 12. DMC by non-metallic minerals 1 000 tonnes. MF3 [19]

Non-metallic minerals (MF3) divided: marble, granite, sandstone, porphyry, basalt, other ornamental or building stone (MF31); chalk and dolomite (MF32); slate (MF33); chemical and fertiliser minerals (MF34); salt (MF35); limestone and gypsum (MF36) and other.

EU-27 non-metallic minerals consumption in 2012 was 3,189 million tonnes, over the 12 years it decreased by 13.0%. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania it decreased 3.3, 2.9 and 1.6 times.

Fossil energy materials/carriers (MF4) divided: coal and other solid energy materials/carriers (MF41); Liquid and gaseous energy materials/carriers (MF42): Crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids (MF421), Natural gas (MF422), Fuels bunkered (MF423); Products mainly from fossil energy products (MF43).

Table 13. Domestic fossil energy materials consumption - million tonnes. [19]

Figure 13. DMC by fossil energy materials in Germany and EU-27 1 000 tonnes. MF4 [19]

EU-27 fossil energy materials consumption grew until 2005, the peak was 1914 million tonnes. Next it is decreased, which is characterized by a parabola. From 2005 to 2013, consumption dropped by 19.5%.

Germany's fossil energy materials consumption share is a quarter of total EU-27 consumption. There has been a very small fluctuations. The changes characterized from 3-degree polynomial. From 2006 to 2013, consumption dropped by 7.5%.

Table 14. Domestic fossil energy materials consumption - 1 000 tonnes. [19]

Figure 14. DMC by fossil energy materials/carriers 1 000 tonnes. MF4 [19]

[picture] | (17)

From 2000 to 2013 Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania growth it according to 61.7%, 1.5% and 21.3%. In 2013 was annual growth of Estonia 16.3%.

EU-27 other products consumption in 2012 was 4,659 thousand tonnes, over the 12 years it decreased by 15.5%. Consumption of other products in the Baltic countries was very small and with large fluctuations.

EU-27 waste for final treatment and disposal consumption in 2012 was 218 thousand tonnes, over the 12 years it growth by 45.3%. In the Baltic countries was it also very small and with large fluctuations.

Table 15. Total DMC by key components, thousand tonnes [19]

When EU-27 metal ores (ores gross) the percentage in total DMC was 3.5%, then Baltic countries practically 0. Other products and waste for final treatment and disposal as well as the percentage was practically to 0.

Therefore, it is useful to analyze components of the DMC only for biomass, non-metallic minerals and fossil energy materials/carriers. In 2012, the total DMC of Estonia, and almost equal.

Biomass consumed in was three times less than and . Estonian biomass percentage was 15.1%, 48.9%, 45.2% and EU-27 for comparison 25.1%.

Fossil energy materials/carriers trends were reversed: Estonia percentage was 43.4%, Latvia 6.4%, Lithuania 11.1% and for comparison EU-27 24.2%.

Non-metallic minerals trends were the same: Estonia percentage was 42.2%, Latvia 45.0%, Lithuania 42.5% and for comparison EU-27 47.2%.

Components of DMC and DEU of Estonia growth.

Table 16. DMC by main material category, thousand tonnes [19]

Figure 15. DMC of EU-27 by main material category, thousand tonnes [19]

Figure 16. DMC of Estonia by main material category, thousand tonnes [19]

Figure 17. DMC of Latvia by main material category, thousand tonnes [19]

Figure 18. DMC of Lithuania by main material category, thousand tonnes [19]

Figure 19. GDP = f(DMC) of Estonia, 2000 – 2012 (Note: outliers (2009. year) excluded)

Here is a consolidated table of the development and distribution of resources in Estonian, and . All of these indicators have grown.

The processing of data is used to regression analysis. For this purpose we use the computer program.

Figure and regression analysis shows the example of relatively weak relationship between GDP and DMC, as R² is small. The figure shows that the DMC can increase GDP even decreased. It shows that the optimum borders over the DMC large expenditures to exceed the income therefrom. Also, as higher fossil-on fuel consumption is harmful to the environment.

Therefore, we should analyze the resource productivity in depth below. This, however, is strongly correlated with labor productivity analysis [26-35].

Taking into account this publication and the previous work of the authors [2-12,26-35] and other authors' works [13,14,15,16,17] have made the following conclusions and suggestions.

4. Conclusions

●  The development of Baltic and CEE-8 economies (GDP) has been cyclical, characterized by a well theoretically complicated polynomial.

●  Development of the Baltic economies was before and after the economic crisis, the EU's largest.

●  Resource productivity was not so large fluctuations when in the whole national economy (GDP).

●  Before the economic crisis, GDP growth rose by analogy with DMC. The peak was reached in 2007 - 2008. 2009. followed by a decline, especially large in Lithuania. In the following years the economy grew, and with it DMC or vice versa the better DMC used to cause growth. For more of the answer gives the material flow components detailed analysis.

●  Volume growth of material resources does not always result in economic growth. This leads inevitably to increased costs, which could exceed the income.

●  Total exports resource of Baltic countries in tones growth, in Lithuania and in Latvia over two times, but in Estonia 42%.

●  Domestic Extraction Used (DEU) of Baltic countries in tonnes growth, in Estonia 1.8, in Latvia and in Lithuania 1.4 times.

●  Total DMC and DEU of Estonia growth. Lithuania and Latvia were great abrupt changes, in peak was before the crisis, and the largest decline year after the crisis.

●  Biomass decreased in the period analyzed EU-27 and Latvia scarce. Lithuania had a small and Estonia double biomass consumption grew. However, Estonia biomass consumed was three times less than in Latvia and Lithuania.

●  EU-27 metal ores consumption in 2012 was 237 million tonnes, of 12 years it fell 15.7%. Consumption metal ores in the Baltic countries was very small and with large fluctuations.

●  EU-27 non-metallic minerals consumption of 12 years fell 13.0%; Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania aga 3.3, 2.9 and 1.6 times.

●  EU-27 fossil energy materials/carriers consumption of 12 years fell 10.1%; Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania however, grew 39.0%, 9.6% and 27.9%.

●  EU-27 other products consumption grew in 12 years was 15.5%. Other products consumption of the Baltic countries was very small and with large fluctuations.

●  EU-27 waste for final treatment and disposal consumption in 12 years was 45.3%. In the Baltic countries was it very small and with large fluctuations.

●  The EU has a poor energy region, it is unexpected decrease in mineral fuels (sanctions) is very sensitive.

●  Total imports resource per capita grew in all Baltic countries.

●  So far the mineral fuels imports from third countries progressed steadily.

●  Of the Baltic countries are more dependent of the imported resources Lithuania.

●  In summary, total DMC and DEU of Estonia growth. Lithuania and Latvia were large abrupt changes, peak was before the crisis, and the biggest drop one year after the crisis.

●  Of the Baltic countries are more advanced DMC in Estonia.

●  The use of environmentally friendly materials has risen, and the use of sustainable materials is reduced.

●  Material flow is generally decreased less so EU whole, but also in the Baltic States.

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