Dear Label_Name,

Greetings! I hope you are well.

I am writing on behalf of an international publishing house, Science and Education Publishing, USA (http://www.sciepub.com).

Science and Education Publishing (SciEP) is a multidisciplinary open access publisher of Journals covering the fields of Science, Technology and Medicine. All SciEP publications are subject to high-quality peer review, editorial and production processes and are freely available online.

Welcome to the April, 2013 edition of SciEP newsletter, providing monthly summaries of articles on science & education related topics of interest to scientist and professionals. The mission of our journals is to provide an open access forum for publishing new findings on issues pertinent to scientific and academic field. We also invite you to submit original research papers, review articles, short reports, or case studies are considered for publication in our Multidisciplinary Journals.

American Journal of Public Health Research
DOI: 10.12691/ajphr-1-1-3

The Implementation of a Tele-Homecare System with Service Oriented Architecture and HL7 Message Transmission Standard
Ching-Sung Wang

American Journal of Medical and Biological Research
DOI: 10.12691/ajmbr-1-1-2

The Influence of Ethanol on Pyruvate Kinases Activity in Vivo, in Vitro, in Silico
Lelevich Sergey Vladimirovich, Khrustalev Vladislav Victorovich, Barkovsky Eugene Victorovich, Shedogubova Tatyana Aleksandrovna

American Journal of Medical Sciences and Medicine
DOI: 10.12691/ajmsm-1-1-1

Clinical and Histological Features in Wegener Granulomatosis
Li Cavoli Gioacchino, Passantino Rita, Bono Luisa, Tortorici Calogera, Ferrantelli Angelo, Giammarresi Carlo, Rotolo Ugo

American Journal of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology
DOI: 10.12691/ajidm-1-1-2

The Curse of Lymphatic Filariasis: Would the Continual Use of Diethylcarbamazine Eliminate this Scourge in Papua New Guinea?
Anne Lanham, Lillian Mwanri

We have released issues of some journals on February 2013.
American Journal of Public Health Research
American Journal of Medical Sciences and Medicine
American Journal of Medical and Biological Research
American Journal of Pharmacological Sciences
American Journal of Clinical Medicine Research
American Journal of Nursing Research
American Journal of Cancer Prevention
American Journal of Medicine Studies
American Journal of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology
American Journal of Cardiovascular Disease Research
American Journal of Biomedical Research
American Journal of Mechanical Engineering
American Journal of Microbiological Research
Journal of Preventive Medicine
American Journal of Food and Nutrition
American Journal of Hypertension Research
American Journal of Sports Science and Medicine
Journal of Cancer Research and Treatment
American Journal of Zoological Research
Journal of Biomedical Engineering and Technology
American Journal of Microbiological Research
Biomedical Science and Engineering

We are pleased to announce that submissions are now being accepted for peer review for all the journals across all our subject areas in SciEP.

Please submit your manuscript via our online submission system:
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David Rain
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Science and Education Publishing (http://www.sciepub.com)

Label_Title

Dear Label_Name,

Greetings! I hope you are well.

I am writing on behalf of an international publishing house, Science and Education Publishing, USA (http://www.sciepub.com).

Science and Education Publishing (SciEP) is a multidisciplinary open access publisher of Journals covering the fields of Science, Technology and Medicine. All SciEP publications are subject to high-quality peer review, editorial and production processes and are freely available online.

Welcome to the April, 2013 edition of SciEP newsletter, providing monthly summaries of articles on science & education related topics of interest to scientist and professionals. The mission of our journals is to provide an open access forum for publishing new findings on issues pertinent to scientific and academic field. We also invite you to submit original research papers, review articles, short reports, or case studies are considered for publication in our Multidisciplinary Journals.

American Journal of Public Health Research
DOI: 10.12691/ajphr-1-1-3

The Implementation of a Tele-Homecare System with Service Oriented Architecture and HL7 Message Transmission Standard
Ching-Sung Wang

American Journal of Medical and Biological Research
DOI: 10.12691/ajmbr-1-1-2

The Influence of Ethanol on Pyruvate Kinases Activity in Vivo, in Vitro, in Silico
Lelevich Sergey Vladimirovich, Khrustalev Vladislav Victorovich, Barkovsky Eugene Victorovich, Shedogubova Tatyana Aleksandrovna

American Journal of Medical Sciences and Medicine
DOI: 10.12691/ajmsm-1-1-1

Clinical and Histological Features in Wegener Granulomatosis
Li Cavoli Gioacchino, Passantino Rita, Bono Luisa, Tortorici Calogera, Ferrantelli Angelo, Giammarresi Carlo, Rotolo Ugo

American Journal of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology
DOI: 10.12691/ajidm-1-1-2

The Curse of Lymphatic Filariasis: Would the Continual Use of Diethylcarbamazine Eliminate this Scourge in Papua New Guinea?
Anne Lanham, Lillian Mwanri

We have released issues of some journals on February 2013.
American Journal of Public Health Research
American Journal of Medical Sciences and Medicine
American Journal of Medical and Biological Research
American Journal of Pharmacological Sciences
American Journal of Clinical Medicine Research
American Journal of Nursing Research
American Journal of Cancer Prevention
American Journal of Medicine Studies
American Journal of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology
American Journal of Cardiovascular Disease Research
American Journal of Biomedical Research
American Journal of Mechanical Engineering
American Journal of Microbiological Research
Journal of Preventive Medicine
American Journal of Food and Nutrition
American Journal of Hypertension Research
American Journal of Sports Science and Medicine
Journal of Cancer Research and Treatment
American Journal of Zoological Research
Journal of Biomedical Engineering and Technology
American Journal of Microbiological Research
Biomedical Science and Engineering

We are pleased to announce that submissions are now being accepted for peer review for all the journals across all our subject areas in SciEP.

Please submit your manuscript via our online submission system:
http://www.sciepub.com/author/signin

To unsubscribe from our mailing list, please click on the following link: unsubscribe

I am looking forward to hearing from you.

Kind regards,

David Rain
Email:join@sciepub.com
Science and Education Publishing (http://www.sciepub.com)

Label_Title

Dear Label_Name,

Greetings! I hope you are well.

I am writing on behalf of an international publishing house, Science and Education Publishing, USA (http://www.sciepub.com).

Science and Education Publishing (SciEP) is a multidisciplinary open access publisher of Journals covering the fields of Science, Technology and Medicine. All SciEP publications are subject to high-quality peer review, editorial and production processes and are freely available online.

Welcome to the April, 2013 edition of SciEP newsletter, providing monthly summaries of articles on science & education related topics of interest to scientist and professionals. The mission of our journals is to provide an open access forum for publishing new findings on issues pertinent to scientific and academic field. We also invite you to submit original research papers, review articles, short reports, or case studies are considered for publication in our Multidisciplinary Journals.

American Journal of Public Health Research
DOI: 10.12691/ajphr-1-1-3

The Implementation of a Tele-Homecare System with Service Oriented Architecture and HL7 Message Transmission Standard
Ching-Sung Wang

American Journal of Medical and Biological Research
DOI: 10.12691/ajmbr-1-1-2

The Influence of Ethanol on Pyruvate Kinases Activity in Vivo, in Vitro, in Silico
Lelevich Sergey Vladimirovich, Khrustalev Vladislav Victorovich, Barkovsky Eugene Victorovich, Shedogubova Tatyana Aleksandrovna

American Journal of Medical Sciences and Medicine
DOI: 10.12691/ajmsm-1-1-1

Clinical and Histological Features in Wegener Granulomatosis
Li Cavoli Gioacchino, Passantino Rita, Bono Luisa, Tortorici Calogera, Ferrantelli Angelo, Giammarresi Carlo, Rotolo Ugo

American Journal of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology
DOI: 10.12691/ajidm-1-1-2

The Curse of Lymphatic Filariasis: Would the Continual Use of Diethylcarbamazine Eliminate this Scourge in Papua New Guinea?
Anne Lanham, Lillian Mwanri

We have released issues of some journals on February 2013.
American Journal of Public Health Research
American Journal of Medical Sciences and Medicine
American Journal of Medical and Biological Research
American Journal of Pharmacological Sciences
American Journal of Clinical Medicine Research
American Journal of Nursing Research
American Journal of Cancer Prevention
American Journal of Medicine Studies
American Journal of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology
American Journal of Cardiovascular Disease Research
American Journal of Biomedical Research
American Journal of Mechanical Engineering
American Journal of Microbiological Research
Journal of Preventive Medicine
American Journal of Food and Nutrition
American Journal of Hypertension Research
American Journal of Sports Science and Medicine
Journal of Cancer Research and Treatment
American Journal of Zoological Research
Journal of Biomedical Engineering and Technology
American Journal of Microbiological Research
Biomedical Science and Engineering

We are pleased to announce that submissions are now being accepted for peer review for all the journals across all our subject areas in SciEP.

Please submit your manuscript via our online submission system:
http://www.sciepub.com/author/signin

To unsubscribe from our mailing list, please click on the following link: unsubscribe

I am looking forward to hearing from you.

Kind regards,

David Rain
Email:join@sciepub.com
Science and Education Publishing (http://www.sciepub.com)

Label_Title

Dear Label_Name,

Greetings! I hope you are well.

I am writing on behalf of an international publishing house, Science and Education Publishing, USA (http://www.sciepub.com).

Science and Education Publishing (SciEP) is a multidisciplinary open access publisher of Journals covering the fields of Science, Technology and Medicine. All SciEP publications are subject to high-quality peer review, editorial and production processes and are freely available online.

Welcome to the April, 2013 edition of SciEP newsletter, providing monthly summaries of articles on science & education related topics of interest to scientist and professionals. The mission of our journals is to provide an open access forum for publishing new findings on issues pertinent to scientific and academic field. We also invite you to submit original research papers, review articles, short reports, or case studies are considered for publication in our Multidisciplinary Journals.

American Journal of Public Health Research
DOI: 10.12691/ajphr-1-1-3

The Implementation of a Tele-Homecare System with Service Oriented Architecture and HL7 Message Transmission Standard
Ching-Sung Wang

American Journal of Medical and Biological Research
DOI: 10.12691/ajmbr-1-1-2

The Influence of Ethanol on Pyruvate Kinases Activity in Vivo, in Vitro, in Silico
Lelevich Sergey Vladimirovich, Khrustalev Vladislav Victorovich, Barkovsky Eugene Victorovich, Shedogubova Tatyana Aleksandrovna

American Journal of Medical Sciences and Medicine
DOI: 10.12691/ajmsm-1-1-1

Clinical and Histological Features in Wegener Granulomatosis
Li Cavoli Gioacchino, Passantino Rita, Bono Luisa, Tortorici Calogera, Ferrantelli Angelo, Giammarresi Carlo, Rotolo Ugo

American Journal of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology
DOI: 10.12691/ajidm-1-1-2

The Curse of Lymphatic Filariasis: Would the Continual Use of Diethylcarbamazine Eliminate this Scourge in Papua New Guinea?
Anne Lanham, Lillian Mwanri

We have released issues of some journals on February 2013.
American Journal of Public Health Research
American Journal of Medical Sciences and Medicine
American Journal of Medical and Biological Research
American Journal of Pharmacological Sciences
American Journal of Clinical Medicine Research
American Journal of Nursing Research
American Journal of Cancer Prevention
American Journal of Medicine Studies
American Journal of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology
American Journal of Cardiovascular Disease Research
American Journal of Biomedical Research
American Journal of Mechanical Engineering
American Journal of Microbiological Research
Journal of Preventive Medicine
American Journal of Food and Nutrition
American Journal of Hypertension Research
American Journal of Sports Science and Medicine
Journal of Cancer Research and Treatment
American Journal of Zoological Research
Journal of Biomedical Engineering and Technology
American Journal of Microbiological Research
Biomedical Science and Engineering

We are pleased to announce that submissions are now being accepted for peer review for all the journals across all our subject areas in SciEP.

Please submit your manuscript via our online submission system:
http://www.sciepub.com/author/signin

To unsubscribe from our mailing list, please click on the following link: unsubscribe

I am looking forward to hearing from you.

Kind regards,

David Rain
Email:join@sciepub.com
Science and Education Publishing (http://www.sciepub.com)

The Presentation of the Effect of Consumer Pricing Model on the Power Market Trades with the Usage of System Dynamic Method

Mohammad Hojjat Poorhemati, Sepehr Asgarian Abhari, Seyedeh Ghazal Hosseini*, Hamid Akbari, Mohammad Javad Ghaheri

Haj Abdullah, Tavasoli high school, Damavand, Tehran, Iran

Abstract: This study was an attempt to examine the impact of the presentation of consumer pricing on electricity market transactions by using the dynamic system method. The participants of the study were sixty Iranian experts in the electricity ministry in Tehran. The participants were randomly chosen. The researchers applied the Likert method and chose a system dynamic model to analyze the data so the findings of the study revealed that there is a statistical difference among factors and on the other hand there is a meaningful full impact on electricity market transactions. The descriptive statistics revealed that there is a significant relationship between some factors and the electricity market transaction. In this model, variables such as the volume of electricity trading, the speed of transactions, the quality of products, energy demand, energy supply, efficiency, growth, price stability, saving, increasing government revenue, determining the optimal price, the goals of life, saving on investment, Reliability, performance, flexibility in time, quantity optimality, price flexibility, profitability, optimality of volume, optimality in consumption, energy efficiency, satisfaction, investment, production capacity, export capacity, import capacity, operating cost, market price equilibrium, price decline Subscribers are considered. Because most of the respondents were filling the questionnaire on variables such as reliability, performance, optimality, transaction speed, energy demand and exports, and ... high score (5); these resulted in a positive trend for electricity market transactions. In contrast to imports and the price balance, the prices of electricity were reduced and the trend of the positive trend of transactions was adjusted.

Keywords: consumer pricing, electricity market transaction, dynamic system

Received May 08, 2024; Revised June 10, 2024; Accepted June 17, 2024

Citation: Mohammad Hojjat Poorhemati, Sepehr Asgarian Abhari, Seyedeh Ghazal Hosseini, Hamid Akbari, Mohammad Javad Ghaheri, The Presentation of the Effect of Consumer Pricing Model on the Power Market Trades with the Usage of System Dynamic Method. International Journal of Global Energy Markets and Finance, 3 (1). 1-20. January 2024. doi:10.12691/ijgefm-3-1-1

1. Introduction

Since the beginning of history, mankind has realized the importance of energy for continued survival and has always spent a large part of its energy to prepare and supply the required energy. Today, energy, as one of the production factors, has a great contribution to the growth and development of different countries and has played the biggest role in the development of recent human civilization.

The importance of energy for countries is such that without exception, all economic experts have paid much attention to the relationship between energy and economic growth; The energy sector has always played a pivotal role in the economic life of societies as one of the infrastructure sectors. Based on this, the countries of the world are trying to get access to reliable and planned sources of energy. Since fossil fuels such as oil and gas are not renewable and have been available only once during human life and they will end one day, hence the issue of replacing them with other energies and the possibility of saving and their optimal use is seriously included in the agenda of economic programs of advanced countries, and extensive researches have been conducted in the field of planning and correct use and reducing the rate of consumption of such resources. Also, in recent years, the energy discourse has become one of the important discourses of societies and one of the important and strategic issues in the economy of the nations of the world and large companies. Among the various types of energy, electricity is a type that has attracted the attention of energy sector brokers due to its cleanliness, ease of transfer, and ability to convert to other energies. In addition, electricity, as a renewable source and an alternative to fossil energies, shows a special attraction and attractiveness.

Today, energy, as one of the factors of production, has a great contribution to the growth and development of different countries. The necessity of using energy for growth and development, along with issues such as consumer pricing, customer orientation, and the dynamics of the electricity trading market, has caused countries to seek the development of energy pricing models. Access to pricing models is very important for the policymakers of the energy sector to develop the energy trading market.

In the past, power systems had a vertical structure, which means that the production of electrical energy, its transmission and distribution in an area, was carried out by a control unit. Small and large consumers bought the energy they needed from the government, and the electricity market system was monopolar (monopoly). The governments managed the electricity market by building small and large power plants in different parts of the country or region and transferring them to places of consumption and distribution, and they supervised the entire system from a single center.

With the increasing expansion of electrical energy systems and the optimal use of resources, economic competition, and environmental restrictions, the trend towards a multipolar (competitive) market developed and the need for it made governments encourage companies and economic enterprises. To invest and participate in the electricity industry. This change in laws and the application of economic incentives by governments to control the increasing growth of the electricity industry was proposed under the title of deregulation.

This followed the privatization of the electricity industry in the production and sales sectors, in 1982 in Chile, in 1992 in Argentina, and then in the countries of Bolivia, Peru, Guatemala, Colombia, El Salvador, Panama, Brazil, Mexico, and Scotland. Northern Ireland, Norway, England, Spain, Holland, and parts of the United States of America have been implemented in different ways. [1]

In the multipolar electricity market system, buyers can choose the energy supplier. By providing better service and cheaper energy, more buyers will be attracted, which will bring more profit to the supplier, and on the other hand, the buyers will also get more benefits. Energy suppliers are brokers who sell energy to customers. Although they may not be producers, they can buy a share of power plants' production. This new structure of the power system challenges the concepts of the past. In the past, the focus of research was on formulating some practical limitations, such as bus voltage range, production limitations, capacity of transmission lines, possible limitations, environmental considerations, and such issues.

In the multipolar electricity market system, buyers can choose the energy supplier. By providing better service and cheaper energy, more buyers are attracted, which brings more profit to the supplier, and on the other hand, the buyers also get more benefits. Energy suppliers are brokers who sell energy to customers. Although they may not be producers, they can buy a share of power plants' production. This new structure of the power system challenges the concepts of the past. In the past, the focus of the research was on the formulation of some practical limitations such as bus voltage range, production limitations, transmission line capacity, possible limitations, environmental considerations, and issues like this.

To guarantee the free access of suppliers and buyers to the transmission system, the operation of the transmission system requires independence from market shares. Independent system operators play the role of central coordinator and fulfill their important responsibility by providing security and reliability of the system. Also, ISO guarantees the quality and security of the system.

To guarantee the free access of suppliers and buyers to the transmission system, the operation of the transmission system requires independence from market shares. Independent system operators play the role of central coordinator and fulfill their important responsibility by providing security and reliability of the system. Also, ISO guarantees the quality and security of the system.

Transmission and distribution environments are in competitive systems with open access and the issues related to them are of undeniable importance. In network management structures, whether as a combination of system operator and market operator or as an independent system operator, transmission systems have a special role as energy transmission highways. In the SO+MO system, the administration of the competitive market and all matters related to the purchase and sale contracts are separate from the network operator, but in the ISO structure, both of the mentioned cases are performed by the independent network operator. The management structures of the network are shown in the figure below [2]. With the restructuring of the electricity industry, the producers of the electricity industry appear as independent entities in the electricity market. The power plants must supply their produced electricity to the electricity market, and the financial settlement takes place through the electricity market.

Figure 1. Network management structures

Vensim model

Vensim is a software tool used for system dynamics modeling and simulation. It allows users to construct complex models that can simulate the behavior of systems over time. Vensim models are built using causal loop diagrams or stock and flow diagrams, which help in visualizing and understanding the relationships and feedback loops within a system. In Vensim, you connect variables with arrows to represent causal connections, and these connections are then used to form a complete simulation model. The software is designed to be both simple and flexible, providing a powerful platform for users to experiment with different scenarios and see the potential outcomes of various decisions. Vensim is widely used in various fields such as business, environmental science, public policy, and education to model complex systems and analyze how they might behave under different conditions. It’s a valuable tool for anyone interested in understanding and improving systems through simulation.

Vensim model features

1. Powerful software for modeling, model testing and sensitivity analysis of complex dynamic systems.

2. Purpose: to help solve problems that are difficult to solve analytically mathematically without the help of computer simulation.

3. Feature: You can model without worrying about the type of modeling or its mathematical basis, and it has the ability to provide statistical methods and automatic tests in order to increase the quality of models. [3]

Systems dynamics

Change is the greatest achievement of the new age. Rapid changes in technology, population, and economic activities have transformed our world from a simple, trivial state (for example, the information technology age seen when using a telephone) to a rich state (such as the effect of greenhouse gases on the world's climate). Sometimes these changes are surprising. In such a way that some of these changes are polluting our planet, making the human soul sick and threatening human life. All these changes challenge our old principles, habits, and beliefs. Importantly, most of the changes we are now trying to understand are reflections of human actions. Too often, people's well-intentioned efforts to relieve the pressure of problems lead to policy resistance, so that all our policies are delayed, undermined, or failed by unforeseen reactions from people or nature. Sometimes, the most serious efforts to solve a problem make it worse. The confusing effects of rapid change are not new. One of the ways to identify and understand these dynamic changes is to identify systems. System dynamics is for enhancing learning in complex systems. Just as airlines use flight simulators to train pilots, dynamic systems identification is partly a way for aspiring simulators to develop management. Most computer simulation models help us understand the complexity of dynamics, sources of political resistance, and effective policies.

Table 1. Sample questionnaire

Learning complex dynamic systems requires the creation of mathematical models more than technological tools. The dynamics of the system basically has an internal order. Since we are concerned with the behavior of complex systems, system dynamics is based on nonlinear dynamic theory and the development of feedback control in mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences. Therefore, we apply these tools to human behaviors as well as physical and technical systems, so system dynamics is designed based on perceptual and social psychology, economics and other social sciences. As we build system dynamics models to solve important real-world problems, we must learn how to work effectively with active policy-making groups and how to catalyze continuous and ongoing change in the organization.

In an article entitled "Analysis of market power for Iran's electricity market", two market concentration indices and Harishman-Herfindahl index are used, based on two scenarios. In the first scenario, the current situation of the electricity market is taken into consideration, and in the second scenario, the future perspective of the Iranian electricity market based on the independence of producers in the market is considered. The results show that due to scarcity in the supply side of the market, producers, especially in the fertile time, despite their sometimes-small market share, deviate from competitive behavior and apply market power [4]. In his doctoral thesis, he studies the level of competition in Iran's electricity market using peak data in the first six months of 2018, which ultimately confirms the strategic behavior of actors in Iran's electricity market in offering. [5] In an article titled "Determining the basis of transactions in the instantaneous electricity market, a case study of the Isfahan electricity market", he pointed out that he tries to calculate the basis for transactions based on mathematical planning and cost minimization by presenting a model for the structured instantaneous renewal market to pay in the case of variable demand. [6]

Table 2. research questions

2. Methodology

Research can be classified into fundamental, applied, and action research The aim of applied research is to discover new knowledge that has a specific application about a product or process The current research method is classified as "applied" in this regard. On the other hand, research can also be classified into cross-sectional and longitudinal studies based on the time period under investigation Therefore, since the present study focuses on examining data related to a specific time period, it is considered a "cross-sectional" research. Additionally, the method employed in this research is analytical-survey. To collect data, a combination of library and field research methods will be used. The library method will mainly be used to study the literature on the subject and review previous research. Subsequently, data collection will involve designing questionnaires and other field methods, followed by necessary analyses using software such as SPSS. In this study, by identifying variables and their relationships and presenting a conceptual model, dimensions of factors influencing brand formation will be identified, which can somewhat clarify the reasons for existing issues in branding.

Data gathering tools

Tools that researchers in the humanities have been able to invent to collect information so far include: questionnaires, interview cards, observation cards, fish tests, forms, and the like. These tools are selected and designed according to the type of research and the method of work [42]. In this study, in the initial stages, a questionnaire was used as a research tool. During a fuzzy Delphi phase, questionnaires were provided to experts. It should be noted that in the process of conducting the current research, initially, a model for the research variables was selected with the help of literature review related to each variable and literature on brand formation and branding, using the fuzzy Delphi method. Since the model used in this research is a system dynamics model, after extracting the causal loop model that was examined by industry and university experts and was confirmed after modification, the necessary information was obtained from interviews with experts and studying library statistics and documents related to the food industries. Finally, the outputs of the software and Vensim were confirmed by experts' opinions.

3. Methodology

The method used in this research is quantitative. The type of research is applied based on the objective, and it is considered descriptive and exploratory in nature based on how the required data was obtained. Field research was conducted to collect information. Initially, effective indicators for brand formation were identified through a review of the research background. These indicators (research variables) were identified, and a questionnaire was designed based on fuzzy Delphi technique by the researcher to complete and finalize these indicators. The questionnaire was distributed among experts in three stages. Subsequently, based on the final indicators, the relationship between the factors was determined through broader studies, and a causal loop diagram was designed using software such as Vensim, which is a system dynamics software. This model was then validated through interviews with industry and university experts. Following this stage, the level of influence of variables on each other was determined based on experts' opinions and field studies. A formula for the model was developed based on these numbers, and finally, the outputs of the Vensim software were confirmed by expert opinions.

Figure 2. Causal loop

Figure 3. System dynamics model

The validity of questionnaires:

The validity of questionnaires is a qualitative issue that is not easily computable like the reliability of a questionnaire. Validity of a questionnaire deals with the scientific accuracy of the questionnaire, ensuring that the questions accurately measure what they are intended to measure. The questionnaire in this research initially consisted of a set of preliminary questions that were provided to industry experts in the field of electricity. Through face-to-face interviews and gathering feedback from experts and professionals in the electricity industry, the final questionnaire was designed.

Model design

Dynamic models of systems are created based on the internal relationship of variables and the existence of feedback in the system. The model was designed based on the research questionnaire.

4. Model Framework

The most important part of modeling in research is creating a framework for the model. Considering that the most important principle in modeling is the simplification of the desired community to solve the created problem; At first, the boundary of the model is determined so that other factors that cannot be modeled or that do not have much effect on the model are removed from the model.

1 -Population section

2 -Industry sector

3 -Transactions section

4 -Department of economy

Presenting a model of the impact of consumer pricing on electricity market transactions using the system dynamics method

In this model, variables such as the volume of electricity transactions, increasing the speed of transactions, product quality, energy demand, energy supply, efficiency, growth, price stability, saving, increasing government income, determining the optimal price, living goals, saving investment, Reliability, performance, time flexibility, quantity optimization, price flexibility, profitability, volume optimization, consumption optimization, energy efficiency, satisfaction, costing, production capacity, export capacity, import capacity, operating cost, market price equilibrium, price reduction Subscribers have been considered and these variables are considered in the electricity industry, which was provided according to the questionnaire according to the opinion of the experts of the electricity industry. After presenting the electricity model in the figure below, we entered the main indicator, which is the consumer's price offer, to see the changes observed in each of the variables.

Traditional Structure of the Electricity Industry

In almost all countries and in the past hundred years, the electricity industry has been monopolistic and under government supervision. This industry operated as a unified monopoly with a vertical structure of activities, and ownership of all generation, transmission, and distribution facilities was in the hands of the national or local electricity company. Only this company was authorized to produce, transmit, distribute, and sell electricity within its service area and was also obligated to meet the needs of all consumers, not necessarily just the profitable ones. The operational methods and business practices of these companies had to comply with guidelines and rules provided by government regulators, and the electricity company's rates were also set in accordance with regulatory requirements. Additionally, the government ensured that these regulated rates included a fair and reasonable profit margin above costs for the electricity company. [7].

structure have important characteristics as outlined in Table. (Research Group of System Studies).

Table 3. Key characteristics of the traditional electricity industry

Restructuring in the Electricity Industry

The beginning of restructuring in the electricity industry can be traced back to the year 1970, during which activities in the electricity generation sector were opened up to small and new entrants. In 1978, the United States government passed laws requiring electricity companies to purchase power from such producers. In 1982, Chile passed a law giving large consumers the right to choose from different companies to buy electricity. The electricity market in England and Wales took shape in 1990, with its mechanism being considered the best in the world. Following this, Norway designed a competitive market in 1991, which further developed in 1996 with Sweden entering the market, now known as NORD POOL.

Motivations for restructuring the electricity industry: Since the 1970s, the electricity industry has been undergoing changes towards promoting competition among producers and creating competitive market conditions to reduce production and distribution costs, eliminate inefficiencies, separate tasks, and increase customer choice. This transformation towards a competitive market is often referred to as deregulation or restructuring, with some of its benefits including:

1. Providing consumer choice for consumers

2. Providing a suitable platform for better service delivery

3. Competitive supply of electricity at different levels and consequently determining a suitable price for consumers.

4. Attracting existing capital in private sectors and directing it towards collective benefit without the need for large government investments.

5. Improving the quality of services provided due to existing competition (Ghahremani, Siamak. 2003).

Factors Influencing the Restructuring Process

Over the long term, electricity has been considered a strategic commodity under the control of governments or monopolistic production and supply companies. However, in the past two decades, the idea that generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity should be subject to natural monopolies has been challenged. Some of the influential factors in this restructuring process include: Efficiency: Increasing efficiency is a key factor in the restructuring of the electricity industry.

Advancements in Technology

New technologies play a significant role in the restructuring process, such as the development of combined cycle power plant technology. The deployment of high-reliability, small-scale combined cycle power plants can facilitate electricity supply in response to increasing demand. Another innovation is the use of information and quick access to it. Global Competition: With interconnected electricity grids in different countries and the possibility of selling energy based on global trade principles, production companies strive to minimize electricity production costs to compete in global markets.

Integration of Transmission Systems

Integration of transmission systems creates opportunities to respond to various demands through the formation of wholesale markets.

Financial Constraints

Utilizing World Bank facilities to increase electricity production capacity or improve transmission and distribution networks requires implementing the bank's policies. Some of these policies include:

• Unified restructuring and privatization of facilities

• Financial restructuring and tariff adjustments

• Establishment of an independent regulator for electricity operations

• Creation of a competitive electricity market)

Specific Conditions of Country

In addition to the above factors, the goals of restructuring and privatizing the electricity industry differ in each country, and these goals can be categorized based on the advancement or development status of countries [8]. Models of Implementation in the Modern Electricity Industry Structure: Four executive models in the modern electricity industry structure observed in different countries include the following

In this model, there is no competition or choice for customers and sellers, and electricity prices are controlled by the government. Ownership and operation of all power plants, transmission networks, and distribution networks are in the hands of a monopolistic entity.

Figure 4. Vertical Integrated Monopoly Model

In this model, competition in electricity generation is possible, but not in its transmission and distribution. In this model, private producers sell electricity to the government, the sole buyer, through a long-term contract. Figure: Monopoly buyer model

In this model, competition takes place in the wholesale market, and distribution companies can individually purchase their required electricity from any producer, including independent producers, in a competitive manner.

Figure 5. Monopoly buyer model

Figure 6. Competition model in the wholesale market

Figure 7. The model of full customer discretion in choosing the electricity supplier

In this model, competition is ideally applied at all levels of the electricity industry, from wholesale to individual consumers. A key factor in this model is the access of each user to distribution and transmission networks.

The model of full customer discretion in choosing the electricity supplier

In this model, competition is ideally applied at all levels of the electricity industry, from wholesale to individual consumers. The key factor in this model is the access of each user to distribution and transmission networks.

Figure 8. The model of full customer discretion in choosing the electricity supplier

The eight stages of restructuring in the electricity industry are as follows.

• Stage1 (Separation and segregation of the traditional structure):

The first step in reforming the traditional electricity structure is the separation of the vertically integrated system in this industry in production, transmission, distribution, and retail. From the perspective of traditional planners of the electricity system, the electricity industry should be vertically integrated because of the unique nature of electricity as a non-storable commodity, widespread economies of scale in large power plants, and cost efficiencies in various stages of electricity production, transmission, and distribution due to operating within a monopolistic system. However, new theories suggest that the economic efficiency in a competitive electricity industry is significantly higher than in a vertically integrated monopoly, and with the presence of independent electricity producers and the use of information technology, significant strides can be made towards optimal electricity utilization [8]

Separation in restructuring involves the separation of transmission and distribution lines from electricity producers, electricity suppliers, and consumers. By separating the production, transmission, and distribution sectors, the likelihood of collusion among users is prevented. Figure: Separation and separation of the traditional structure.

Figure 9. Separation and separation of the traditional structure

Stage2 (Restructuring and creating the electricity wholesale market):

Creating a wholesale market requires restructuring, which involves creating a separation in the ownership of power plants, establishing independent operation, and changing the laws governing the traditional structure for controlling and monitoring competitive trade. After separating and segregating the production, transmission, and distribution sectors, monopolies in production must be broken up, and prices should be determined by producers without government intervention through the wholesale electricity market. The key elements for creating a competitive electricity market are as follows:

1-Separation of production monopoly: To maintain low prices and high efficiency, the production monopoly must be eliminated, and appropriate competition laws must be in place to prevent market power abuse through price fixing and price increases.

2-Selection of an independent operation system: In the separation phase, an independent operator should act as a coordinator between producers to ensure the supply of required electricity and also take care of security, network development planning, moment-to-moment supply-demand balance, frequency control, and voltage control.

3-Market design: Electricity buying and selling can be done through bilateral contracts or through a market mechanism such as a unified electricity market.

• Stage3 (Ensuring access to the transmission network and open access):

The question of who has the right to access the transmission and distribution network is one of the fundamental issues in restructuring power systems. According to market regulations, access to the transmission network must be provided to all market players, including producers, consumers, etc. This is to ensure that there is no discrimination among market players, which could create uncertainty and hinder entry into the electricity market.

• Stage4 (Privatization and paying attention to the participation of the private sector):

Privatization in the modern power industry structure aims to create incentives for the private sector to invest in the electricity industry and attract capital. There are two solutions for private sector participation and investment in the power industry. Private sector participation alongside government-owned companies, with the difference that the government must establish new regulations in a way that allows its owned companies to exit from monopolistic positions and permits private sector participants to operate alongside government-owned companies.

• Stage5 (Deregulation and consideration of issues related to amendments in the law):

The framework for reforms in the law must be clear and precise to ensure the security and continuity of investors' presence in the electricity industry. In this way, deregulation is applied with the aim of modifying, removing, and amending laws to create incentives for investment and encourage competition.

• Stage6 (Competition):

Competition in the modern electricity industry structure is discussed at two levels, retail and wholesale. The main goal is to create competition at the wholesale level, allowing various companies to control production and compete with other companies. Creating competition at the retail level means that independent consumers also have the right to choose their energy supplier.

• Stage7 (market management):

An independent system operator should be responsible for managing the market, which includes:

1. Collecting auctions and tenders from producers and buyers

2. Regulating short-term and spot prices

3. Conducting financial settlements between market players in a non-profit manner.

• Stage8(Independent observer):

The government should stop interfering in electricity regulatory issues and delegate the responsibility of supervision to an independent organization that operates professionally and transparently. This independent regulator should be responsible for monitoring:

- Entry of producers and retailers into the electricity market- Ensuring open access to the grid- Pricing

- Developing necessary standards- Supporting consumers.

Secondary stages in the modern electricity industry structure

After restructuring in the electricity industry, some new concepts emerge that need to be considered. The following points are as follows:

Risk Management: In the modern electricity industry structure, market players participate with different strategies, creating competition in the industry. This competition leads to new financial and physical risks. Therefore, choosing an appropriate insurance strategy to prevent facing risks is of great importance. [9]

Congestion Management: The retirement of generators, line outages, and changes in power exchange agreements may result in parts of the network facing congestion. In the classical electricity industry structure, this issue is addressed by implementing guidelines. However, in the modern electricity industry structure, congestion management is done through measures such as capacity allocation, creating transmission rights, congestion pricing, or using flexible tools. [9]

Development Planning: The modern electricity industry structure has brought about significant changes in network structure, costs, and market players such as network owners, operators, market operators, producers, energy consumers, and others. In the modern structure, the economics of electricity has become particularly important. It is not possible to transfer the costs of high reliability and company development planning to customers because each player is a system investor and applies their desired tools for system planning. [9]

Ancillary Services: Power transmission as a primary service related to the transmission network is the responsibility of system operators. In order to provide and maintain this primary service, other services known as ancillary services are required, which are added to the primary power transmission service. Ancillary services are of special importance because without them, power transmission would not be possible. The titles of these ancillary services proposed by FERC in the United States are listed in Table . (Planning Deputy, Ancillary Services, Iran Grid Management Company, from http:// www. igmc.ir)

Table 4. Ancillary services at FERC

Open Access and Real-time Information System

In competitive electricity markets, accurate information is of paramount importance. In such markets, winning bidders will be those who base their proposals on network-related information. Therefore, in order to create a fair and competitive market, all market players must have access to the same information, which should be provided by the system operator. This is achieved through the establishment of an Open Access and Real-time Information System (OASIS), which allows all users to access it[10]

Restructuring trends in other countries

In recent decades, industries such as electricity, gas, and telecommunications around the world have undergone structural changes towards deregulation and privatization. As experiences in Western economies show, restructuring in these industries encourages competition in production and supply, ultimately leading to cost savings, reduced prices of products and services, and improved efficiency. While the process of energy production and consumption can be divided into three stages of generation, transmission, and distribution, in situations where transmission has a natural monopoly nature, electricity generation and distribution can potentially move towards a more competitive direction, aided by technology allowing for multiple players in the market. Furthermore, in addition to theoretical principles, the experiences of leading countries in restructuring electricity markets demonstrate the benefits of competition in production and distribution. Examples include the electricity market in England since 1989, the electricity market in Spain since 1998, and the Nord Pool market in the Scandinavian region, among others [11]

With the expansion of economic knowledge regarding market performance and the adoption of a paradigm based on the importance of relying on market mechanisms to improve economic performance in all sectors and fields, recent decades have witnessed fundamental changes in power structures and systems in industrialized countries towards active marketization of activities. These fundamental changes, under a process known as restructuring, involve broad changes in market regulations and structures, moving towards new market-oriented structures. The goal of restructuring in the electricity industry is to achieve higher efficiency, lower prices, and provide better services to consumers through measures such as strengthening competition. Although the usual texts cite three main objectives: economic efficiency, equality, and consumer choice as reasons for policymakers' shift towards restructuring electricity markets [12], it is clear that from an economic perspective, the ultimate goal of getting closer to market mechanisms and competitiveness will lead to achieving or approaching Pareto efficiency.

If electricity is truly considered a commodity, kilowatt-hours must be available for immediate use when consumers demand it as a consumption good or production input. Despite recent advances in electric energy storage technologies and distributed generation, this has not been achieved commercially, and the continuous and reliable supply of large amounts of electric energy requires large power plants and their connection to consumers through transmission and distribution networks. In practice, optimal conditions dictate that this energy should be generated at the same time it is consumed, to the extent it is needed. Based on this premise, the first difference between electric energy and other goods is that electric energy transactions always refer to a specific amount of kilowatt-hours that must be produced, delivered, and consumed simultaneously over a specified time interval. In other words, electric energy is inseparably intertwined with a physical system (the power grid) whose behavior is much faster than any market. In the physical system, balance between supply and demand or generation must be maintained for efficiency and to reduce losses. If this balance is not maintained, the system will face problems such as voltage drops, increased network losses, etc. In such cases, it may not only result in a simple exchange failure but also potentially lead to widespread power outages with severe economic and social consequences. No economy can agree to market mechanisms that risk such events due to short-term imbalances. Additionally, system recovery from these issues is a complex, costly, and time-consuming process. Therefore, achieving short-term energy balance is a process that cannot simply be entrusted entirely to a market mechanism as it is unreliable. Nowadays, the electricity industry worldwide is moving towards more competitive markets and restructuring processes. The electricity industry in Iran is also transitioning from a monopolistic structure to more competitive markets and a new framework. Looking back, the first electricity generation units in Iran were established by the private sector, but gradually the government's role strengthened, and by the 1970s, the government took full control of it. However, in recent years, the Iranian electricity market has also undergone structural reforms based on government decisions towards a market-based system, where producers compete with each other within certain frameworks. Regulatory bodies, market managers, and the national dispatch center are approved institutions responsible for overseeing the performance of the energy market in Iran towards achieving reliability while approaching efficiency.

The bidding process in the Iranian electricity market is one-sided and follows the model of bulk sales based on the capacity pool. Electricity producers in Iran present their proposed offers to the market manager (system operator). On the other hand, there is demand coupled with uncertainty, and after determining the total amount of generated energy and the amount produced by each unit, payments are made to producers based on their proposed prices within the framework of supply mapping rather than a uniform equilibrium price. In the uniform auction method used in some other electricity markets in other countries, payments are made uniformly based on the mentioned equilibrium price.The restructuring and competition in the electricity markets in Iran and worldwide, within the framework of a market structure based on limited entities, aim to ensure reliability on one side and maintain efficiency through supply mapping choices (actors) under uncertain demand conditions on the other side. Activities are usually carried out, and power plants are asked to provide their choices for supplying electricity in the form of a supply mapping proposal to the market manager. In Iran, companies can present their price-quantity lists in ten price steps, and then the market manager selects each unit's supply amount based on the minimum proposed price that meets the applicants' requirements. The auction method is also payment-based on proposals or uniform payments (in Iran, payment is based on proposals). Given the motivations and factors influencing the restructuring process in the electricity industry, it is observed that the goals of restructuring and privatization vary from country to country based on their level of advancement or development. In developed countries where power systems and customers operate at advanced levels, information exchange between power companies and customers is done through market software via computers. However, in developing countries, only industrial and large commercial customers use real-time and 24-hour pricing. In such countries, all long-term contracts and price predictions are made by the company or commercial entity itself.

Next, we will discuss electricity markets in some countries in detail:

California: In the mid-2000s, California faced challenges in its electricity market, including price fluctuations and power shortages. The restructuring led to issues like limited entry for new power plants, partial deregulation in transmission and distribution, fixed retail prices, and a lack of competitive retail markets. To address these problems, lessons from successful experiences in Pennsylvania and England can be applied. Key elements for a successful electricity market include ensuring sufficient generation capacity, promoting competition through new power plant entry and private contracts, flexible pricing, utilizing market tools like long-term contracts, and boosting private sector involvement. Developing natural gas pipeline infrastructure in California is crucial to improve access to this fuel source for power plants. [13]

South Africa: In South Africa, over two-thirds of the electricity in Africa is produced. The majority of the country's electricity comes from coal-fired power plants, with a small percentage from nuclear and hydroelectric sources. Until 2003, the state-owned utility Eskom had a monopoly on electricity production. However, the government decided to restructure the industry, aiming to reduce Eskom's share to 70% and increase private sector participation to 30%. The main goal was to increase private sector involvement, enhance competition, improve efficiency, and address existing shortcomings in the electricity generation system [14]

Turkey: The primary objective of restructuring and privatizing the electricity sector in Turkey is to ensure reliable, low-cost electricity supply with quality. This is achieved through liberalization, transferring state-owned assets to the private sector, and establishing a competitive market. The goals include reducing costs, improving quality and security, reducing losses, attracting private investment, and benefiting end consumers. The market operates on bilateral contracts and a balancing system to enhance competition and security of supply [15]

Kazakhstan: Restructuring in the electricity sector in Kazakhstan is crucial due to its significant role in the country's energy and fuel sector. Over 7% of the industrial production in Kazakhstan is related to the electricity industry. In 2004, local experts in Kazakhstan were able to produce 9.66 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity by relying on their technical knowledge. One of the main challenges in Kazakhstan's electricity sector is the unbalanced production of electricity in three regions of the country, with over 72% of electricity being generated in the northern and central regions, while the internal transmission network lacks the capacity for optimal transfer to other areas. In response to these challenges, in 2004, Kazakhstan developed a development program for the electricity industry focusing on three main areas:

1. Energy production within the development program, as the energy poverty in the southern part of the country has created a very underdeveloped market for electricity.

2. Transmission and distribution of electricity.

3. Delivery (sale) of energy to customers.The government aims to address production deficiencies in southern regions and reduce reliance on imported electricity through these three focus areas Economic [16]

Species of Iran’s electricity market: The information provided is based on the Electricity Organization Law of Iran and the Ministry of Energy Establishment Law. The details regarding the restructuring of the electricity market in Iran, the roles of different entities such as TAVANIR, regional water companies, and power producers, as well as the market structure and pricing mechanisms, are outlined in these legal documents. For further information and updates on the Iranian electricity industry, you can refer to the Ministry of Energy website at http://www.moe.org.ir.

Additionally, the World Bank report on the Iranian electricity industry may provide valuable insights into the sector's developments and challenges. The electricity market in Iran comprises the following key components:

1. Regulatory Authority: Market Regulation Board oversees and guides the electricity market, ensuring compliance with regulations and efficient operation.

2. Market Operator: Responsible for electricity trading, information exchange, and financial transactions between buyers and sellers.

3. National Dispatching Center: Coordinates national electricity network operations to maintain safety and reliability.

4. Transmission Service Provider: Offers transmission services in line with regulations.

Sellers include regional electricity companies, water companies, Khuzestan Water and Power Organization, and power plant owners. Buyers include regional electricity companies purchasing electricity for distribution to consumers. The electricity market structure has evolved from a centralized model to one with independent components. Key players include ISOs, Gencos, Transcos, DISCOs, Retailcos, market operators, and customers. ISOs set market rules, with Gencos and Transcos as key market participants.

ISO: An electricity market requires an independent controller, and without an ISO, it would not be feasible. The ISO determines the transmission tariff, maintains system security, sets maintenance schedules, and plays a crucial role in long-term planning. The ISO must operate independently from market components, such as transmission owners, generators, distribution companies, and consumers. The ISO has the authority to allocate a certain amount of power to all resources to maintain system security. It also sends signals to all market participants so they can be prepared for optimal performance and efficiency and plan for future investments. In general, we can consider three structures for an ISO, and the choice of structure depends on the ISO's objectives. The first structure is MinISO, which focuses more on maintaining transmission security than market performance. In this structure, the ISO has limited involvement in the market, with its goal being limited to security. The California ISO is an example of this type of ISO where the ISO has limited control over generation and planning. The second structure for an ISO is MaxISO, which includes a power exchange (PX). PX is an independent, non-profit entity that conducts electricity trading through auctions to increase market competitiveness. PX calculates market prices based on the highest bid in the market. In some structures, the ISO and PX are separate entities. Participants must provide data such as costs for each generator and daily demand for each consumer. With this information, the ISO optimally dispatches electricity and determines transmission costs. The PJM and NGC ISOs in the UK are examples of this type.

GENCO: A Generation Company (GENCO) protects and operates generators, selling electricity to contracted parties or power exchanges. GENCOs trade real, reactive, and reserve power independently from the ISO and transmission system operator (IRANSCO). They supply electricity through transmission and distribution companies to customers. GENCOs aim to maximize profit in competitive markets by actively participating and managing risks. They are responsible for contracts and associated risks.

Transco: The Transmission Company (Transco) is a crucial part of the electricity market, transferring power from Generation Companies (GENCOs) to Distribution Companies (DISCOs) through high-voltage lines. Transcos maintain and operate a complex network under the oversight of the Independent System Operator (ISO). Their role includes constructing and managing the transmission system, ensuring grid reliability and facilitating the flow of electricity to end-users.

DISCO: A Distribution Company (DISCO) distributes electricity in a specific geographical area among customers through an electric network connected to consumers. DISCOs are responsible for constructing and operating the electrical system, ensuring reliability, and maintaining quality in the distribution network.

Retail co: A Retail Electricity Company is a new player in this competitive market that verifies electricity sales and then legally sells electricity. A retailer purchases electricity and other essential services for electricity production and offers electricity and other services in a package ready for sale to customers.

Aggregators: Aggregators gather customers into a group to purchase large blocks of power and other services at a lower price. Essentially, they act as an intermediary agency between buyers and sellers.

Brokers: A broker is a middleman in the market where services are priced and traded, facilitating trade between buyers and sellers. Brokers do not produce or buy/sell themselves, but act as an intermediary agency between a GENCO or company and market participants.

Marketer: A marketer does not produce electricity but buys and sells electricity.

Customers: The final electricity consumer who is connected to the distribution line with small equipment. However, for large customers, they are connected to the transmission line. In the restructured system, customers are not obliged to buy electricity and services from their regional company. Customers have direct access to producers and contracts, and based on their desired price, they choose the appropriate service package.

5. Research Variables

In previous studies on consumer pricing and electricity market transactions, a comprehensive spectrum of variables affecting consumer pricing and market transactions has been discussed. The main limitation in identifying as many variables as possible that can significantly contribute to this research is the inadequacy of studies conducted in this area. Therefore, this research aims to incorporate the variables highlighted in previous studies into the initial Delphi questionnaire to provide comprehensive coverage of factors influencing consumer pricing and electricity market transactions.

The Delphi method, developed in the 1950s, involves gathering expert opinions through questionnaires and surveys, seeking feedback repeatedly to reach consensus. It transforms experts' mental data into tangible information through statistical analysis. This method is useful in information systems research and decision-making in management. Okoli and Pawlowski describe it as a structured communication process that challenges group members with issues, allowing for feedback, evaluation of judgments, perspective revision, and anonymity. The Delphi method has replaced traditional research approaches with statistical methods (Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004). The fuzzy Delphi method recognizes that topics cannot always be classified as black or white, but rather fall on a spectrum. Using precise numbers in problem-solving can lead to results that are not reflective of reality. In many areas such as performance evaluation, satisfaction levels, or design development based on customer feedback, using linguistic variables is more common and convenient for experts. These factors have led to the development of the fuzzy Delphi method [17]

The traditional Delphi method has faced challenges such as low convergence of expert opinions, high implementation costs, and the potential exclusion of some individuals' opinions. To improve the traditional Delphi method, Mori and colleagues introduced the concept of integrating the traditional Delphi method with fuzzy theory in 1985. Ishikawa and colleagues further introduced the application of fuzzy theory in the Delphi method and developed a fuzzy integration algorithm to predict future computer penetration rates in organizations. Following them, Su and Yang used triangular fuzzy numbers to incorporate expert opinions and created the fuzzy Delphi method. Maximum and minimum values of expert opinions were considered as boundary points of fuzzy triangular numbers, and geometric mean was used as the degree of membership of fuzzy triangular numbers to eliminate the effects of boundary points. The advantage of the method developed by Su and Yang lies in its simplicity, as expert opinions are collected in one stage[18]. Many decision-making problems stem from incomplete and inaccurate information. Moreover, decisions made by experts are heavily reliant on individual competence and subjectivity. Therefore, it is better to represent data using fuzzy numbers instead of precise numbers. The implementation steps of the fuzzy Delphi method essentially combine the execution of the Delphi method with analyzing information using definitions from fuzzy set theory [19]. The algorithm for implementing the fuzzy Delphi method is shown in Figure.

Figure 10. The algorithm for implementing the fuzzy Delphi method

The most important differences between the fuzzy Delphi method and the traditional Delphi method are that in the fuzzy Delphi technique, experts usually present their opinions in linguistic variables. Then, the average of experts' opinions and the degree of disagreement of each expert from the average are calculated. These pieces of information are then sent to experts to obtain new opinions. In the next step, each expert, based on the information obtained from the previous step, provides a new opinion or revises their previous opinion. This process continues until the average of fuzzy numbers stabilizes sufficiently. Additionally, if the study needs to be conducted under the supervision of groups of experts, it is possible to identify experts' opinions based on fuzzy relationships in similar groups by calculating the distance between triangular numbers and sending their information to the relevant expert [20]. Ishikawa and colleagues have proposed two fuzzy Delphi methods titled "fuzzy Delphi more-or-less" and "fuzzy Delphi through fuzzy integration." Chang and colleagues have utilized interval values along with fuzzy statistics and a gradient descent search method to propose a new method for fuzzy Delphi [21] The characteristics of the traditional Delphi method and the fuzzy Delphi method are compared in Table.

Table 5. The characteristics of the traditional Delphi method and the fuzzy Delphi method are compared

6. System Dynamic

System Dynamics is the knowledge and technique that identifies problems and finds quick solutions by analyzing a system's behavior in a holistic way. It involves understanding the interactions between different parts of a system to address issues effectively. System Dynamics promotes systemic thinking by studying all components and their relationships within a system. [22]Models should always simplify reality. The purpose of dynamic system modeling is to gain an understanding and perspective on system relationships in order to examine possible strategies for improving the system [23] Systemic thinking is the foundation of dynamic systems. It involves considering all factors and relationships between them to solve problems effectively. By understanding how factors interact, analysts can identify and address issues by changing relationships or factors to achieve desired outcomes [24] .that suggested dynamic systems can help in understanding and comprehending complex environments [25] That emphasized the dynamics of a system with its wide range of behaviors and how those behaviors impact the evolution of the system in the future, facilitates decision-making[26]. Assumed that interconnected components in a complex pattern with information flow being more important than physical flow and Considers rates, levels, and feedback loops with nonlinearity and delays as crucial components (Lan 2000). hat have been Emphasized studying systems dynamically to account for all variables from various perspectives. Dynamic Systems Principle and Small rates of change can lead to significant long-term changes in the system[27]. Dynamic Systems Technique is a method for analyzing and improving dynamic systems like social, economic, and managerial systems with a feedback perspective. It was introduced in 1960 by Forrester at MIT and focuses on complex systems with changing behavior over time, incorporating feedback loops for decision-making [28]. System dynamics aims to understand how systems work to improve policies. It uses stocks, flows, feedback loops, and nonlinear relationships to model and test scenarios, leading to a better understanding of the issues at hand. The technique focuses on system structure to explain behavior [29]. The system dynamics method is used to understand complex behaviors and dynamic political, economic, technological, and social systems, to demonstrate system structure and policies used in decision-making about system behavior and The system dynamics method includes two distinct phases: qualitative and quantitative. The quantitative phase is related to developing and analyzing simulation models. The main stage of the qualitative phase involves analyzing the input-output system, conceptual modeling, and flowchart formulation. The first step in creating a quantitative model is to convert the conceptual model into a flowchart. Simulation models are identified by relevant individuals and valid data. Dynamic system modeling helps managers make informed decisions based on data-driven models, providing a qualitative assessment of system behavior and designing necessary strategies for improvement. The main advantage of dynamic system modeling lies in its ability to reveal internal relationships influenced by complex system behavior, particularly in identifying feedback loops through information flow analysis. [30]

The stages of dynamic system modeling

Modeling a process is a feedback or reactive process that is advanced through repetition and iterative cycles. This concept is embedded in the larger cycle and activity of learning and constant occurrence in organizations, Sterman in 2000 states that, by performing five stages, the dynamic system model is created, which are as follows [31].

Stage 1: Identify the problem, key variables, and concepts.

Stage 2: Develop dynamic hypotheses and create a flowchart.

Stage 3: Formulate the system with rates, equations, and parameters.

Stage 4: Test the model against actual system behavior.

Stage 5: Formulation of formulas and evaluation of policies When modelers have confidence in the structure and behavior of the model, we can use it to design and evaluate policies for progress and improvement. The actions and reactions, as well as the interrelated effects of different policies, must be considered because real systems are nonlinear [32]

Table 6. The stages of dynamic system modeling

The tools used in dynamic systems modeling include causal loop diagrams and stock-flow diagrams. Causal loop diagrams show relationships between factors, while stock-flow diagrams quantify these relationships to predict system behavior. These tools help modelers understand complex systems and make informed decisions. Behavioral system diagrams are ultimately extracted with the help of related software, and analysts use these diagrams to analyze and examine the system's behavior in response to changes applied to it. They then select the most suitable strategies for the system[33] . The Likert scale is one of the most common measurement scales used in research. It was developed by Rensis Likert (1903-1981) and is based on a questionnaire where participants rate their agreement with statements using multiple-choice responses. The scale typically consists of 15 to 30 items, and the process of creating a Likert scale involves several steps:

1. Selecting items for measurement and formulating appropriate and inappropriate items related to the research topic.

2. Conducting a pilot test with a random sample of respondents.

3. Assigning values and calculating total scores for each respondent.

4. Determining the discriminatory power of the items.

5. Selecting the final items.6. Determining the reliability coefficient of the scale.

Responses are typically in a multiple-choice format, such as a 5-point scale ranging from "strongly disagree" to "strongly agree." It is recommended to use words instead of numbers in the response options to avoid influencing respondents. Additionally, selecting appropriate items, using a suitable range for response options, avoiding ambiguous items, and including a neutral option are essential considerations for using the Likert scale effectively. Increasing transaction speed leads to higher electricity transaction volumes, boosting production capacity and generating government income. This enables export growth, reducing imports and enhancing economic efficiency. Improved efficiency leads to higher product quality and environmental goals, lowering transaction costs and speeding up transactions. Trader satisfaction drives price proposals, creating market equilibrium and flexibility. This reduces operational costs, boosts profits, and increases production and export capacities. Export opportunities fuel income and economic growth, prompting more price proposals. However, rising operational costs can lower profitability and energy supply, increasing import dependencies and reducing growth. This can slow transaction speed and volume, decreasing price proposals and flexibility. High fixed prices by monopolists can lead to savings in consumption but reduce operational costs. Increasing energy demand drives energy supply, with market forces determining optimal prices for consumers. This boosts transaction volume and price proposals, leading to optimal pricing and increased demand.

Modeling pf the trading sector

In modeling the trading sector, factors such as the quality and quantity of energy produced, transaction speed, price proposals, period prices, short-term prices, and efficiency have been used. In this section of the modeling, an increase in price proposals resulting from the efficiency of energy and the speed and quality of transactions carried out leads to an increase in market transactions. On the other hand, the negative effects of production costs lead to a decrease in these transactions.

Trading volume

In this diagram, the presence of production capacities leads to an increase in price proposals and market transactions in the electricity market. Despite the positive effect of production capacities, an increase in imports and a decrease in economic revenues lead to a reduction in production capacities in the economy, resulting in a further increase in imports. This leads to a decrease in price proposals and adjusts the level of electricity transactions. However, the presence of increasing speed accelerators increases the speed of circulation and the level of transactions, causing the desired variable to continue to increase.

Table 7. Equations used in the identification of transaction volumes

Figure 11. Electricity Market Trades

The bid probability charts

Probability of price proposals increases with the increase in transaction speed. However, other variables such as production capacities, energy quality, energy efficiency, price stability, optimal prices, time and price elasticity, reliability, and customer satisfaction, efficiency in product volume and quality (shadow variables) have been considered. Because the probability of price proposals is influenced by numerous quantitative and qualitative variables.

Table 8. Probability of price offer

Table 9. possibility to bid

In the current research, based on the collected information and also considering the above chart, an increase in electricity transactions leads to an increase in price proposals. Furthermore, with an increase in price flexibility, the determined optimal prices increase, leading to cost savings and the creation of price proposals. This cycle starts in the second stage from the price proposals and affects transactions, desired efficiencies, price and time flexibility. Subsequently, this impacts the level of imports and exports, leading to changes in national income and economic growth.

Table 10. Energy demand

Energy demand graph

A) Foreign demand for energy (exports): This type of demand is due to the impact of energy quality, energy price, flexibility in time and energy volume, the performance of energy producing companies, the capacity of energy producing companies and customer satisfaction from Consumption is created. Therefore, this part of the demand causes economic growth and creates economic power, and the country as an energy exporter enjoys special importance in the region.

b) Domestic demand for energy (production capacity, imports): This part of the demand is related to the domestic market, and if there is an excess demand and a shortage of domestic production capacity, the amount of product imports will increase. And the increase in imports reduces the country's income and moderates the economic growth.

On the other hand, according to the production capacities, if the amount of exports increases; Considering that the country is inflexible in terms of hiring and using production inputs (labor and capital), this has caused inflation inside the country and many issues arise for energy supply, country's income, product quality, price and time flexibility, and people's satisfaction, and all these factors affect the demand.

Energy demand

According to the above diagram, in the present study, the amount of energy demand increases under the influence of the explained factors (in case of increase, the desired factors increase).

Figure 12. Energy Demand

Short-term demand is influenced by the factors mentioned in long-term demand. This type of demand is more influenced by spot prices.

The presented model shows the relationships and foundations of modeling after determining the index of each variable and plotting the Ali and Maalooli diagrams in the research. In the diagrams with the R loop, positive and negative loops are shown, starting with negative and ending with positive. In the diagrams with the B loop, negative loops are shown, starting with negative and ending with positive

Table 11. Short-term demand

Figure 13. Short-term Demand

The model provided

After determining the index of each variable and drawing cause and effect diagrams in the research, we reached a type of both relationships and the basis of modeling, which is shown in the figure below. In the diagram below, the R ring is shown as an increasing ring, and we start with positive and negative, and finally we reach positive. In the graphs that show loop B, there are adjustment or negative loops and they start with negative and finally reach positive.

Figure 14. Shape of Model

Framework for model

The most important part of modeling in research is creating a framework for the model. Considering that the most important principle in modeling is simplifying the target population to solve the problem, the boundaries of the model are first defined to exclude other factors that are not modellable or do not have much impact on the model.

- Population section

- Industry section

- Transaction section

- Economic section

Presenting a model of the impact of consumer pricing on electricity market transactions using the dynamic system method

In this model, variables such as electricity transaction volume, transaction speed increase, product quality, energy demand, energy supply, consumer pricing efficiency, economic growth, price stability, investment savings, government revenue increase, optimal pricing determination, environmental goals, investment savings, reliability, project implementation performance, time flexibility, quantity efficiency, price flexibility, profit maximization, transaction volume efficiency, energy consumption efficiency, energy efficiency, satisfaction, investment, production capacity, export capacity, import capacity, operational costs, market price balance, and reduction in customer prices are considered. These variables are considered in the electricity industry based on the questionnaire provided by experts and industry professionals. After presenting the electricity model in the figure below, we have included the main index which is the consumer pricing proposal to observe the changes in each of the variables.

Simulated Model

After determining the importance of each variable and plotting the cause-and-effect diagrams, we reached the simulation stage in the fourth phase. Based on the nature of the variables, some are considered as stocks and others as flows. Finally, a simulated model was developed and visualized. In the simulated model below, the subsections of energy demand, production capacity, and energy efficiency are plotted together, with each explained separately.

On the left side of the image, factors under the following titles are depicted:

1- Increase transaction speed

2- Quality of products

3- Performance

4- Electricity trading volume

5- Satisfaction

6- Short-term demand

7- Supply of energy

These factors have a significant impact on individual satisfaction and increasing demand. Additionally, in the middle diagram, factors such as:

1- Increase transaction speed

2- Quality of products

3- Electricity trading volume

4- Economic growth

5- Short-term demand

6- Supply of energy

7- Price stability

These factors are influenced by production capacity, based on revenues and economic growth. This part of the modeling represents the most important dynamic behavior of the system. Considering the delays incorporated into the modeling in this section, transaction speed, product quality, satisfaction, export and import levels, investments made, savings, and prices have been effective in energy supply and demand. The right side illustrates market transactions closely related to determined prices. Under the influence of flexible prices, price efficiency, demand, transaction volume, and speed, intermittent prices are determined. This leads to the formation of short-term demand segments, demand levels, income cycles, and economic growth. It also contributes to increased economic growth, government revenue, and price stability. Each will be explained separately through plotted diagrams.

Figure 15. Simulated Model

Energy Demand

Energy demand is also divided into two sections, domestic and foreign demand, based on factors such as transaction volume, project execution performance, satisfaction with products, product quality, and satisfaction levels, along with shadow variables.

1. Increase transaction speed

2. Quality of products

3. Performance

4. Electricity trading volume

5. Satisfaction 6- Short-term demand

6. Supply of energy

Figure 16. Energy Demand

Figure 17. Production capacity

Production Capacity Section

The level of production capacity is determined based on revenues and economic growth. This section of modeling is one of the most important dynamic behaviors of the system. Considering the delays in modeling this section, factors such as transaction speed, product quality, satisfaction, export and import levels, investments made, savings, and prices have been effective in this section and have played an influential role in energy supply, modeled in a shadow and flow manner.

1. Increase transaction speed

2. Quality of products

3. Electricity trading volume

4. Economic growth

5. Short-term demand

6. Energy supply

7. Price stability

Market Transactions and Price Determination Section

Market transactions have a very close and repetitive relationship with the set prices. Under the influence of flexible prices, price efficiency, demand, transaction volume, and speed of transactions, point prices are determined, and with the formation of the short-term demand section, the level of demand and the cycle of incomes and economic growth are shaped. It also leads to increased economic growth, increased government revenue, and price stability.

Figure 18. electricity market trades

Energy Efficiency Section: Energy efficiency in the first stage is related to production costs and revenues resulting from production. In other words, energy efficiency somewhat refers to the return on investment in a company. On the other hand, energy efficiency depends on energy savings, product prices, profitability, operational costs, etc., which have been modeled in the current research.

Conclusion:In this model, variables such as electricity trading volume, increased transaction speed, product quality, energy demand, energy supply, efficiency, growth, price stability, savings, increased government revenue, optimal pricing, environmental goals, investment savings, reliability, performance, time flexibility, quantity efficiency, price flexibility, profitability, volume efficiency, consumption efficiency, energy efficiency, satisfaction, investment cost, production capacity, export capacity, import capacity, operational costs, market price equilibrium, and reduction in subscriber prices have been considered. Because most respondents rated variables such as reliability, performance, efficiency, transaction speed, energy demand, exports, etc., with a high score (5), these variables led to a positive trend in electricity market transactions. On the other hand, the presence of imports and price equilibrium led to a decrease in electricity market transactions and moderated the positive trend of transactions. However, these calculations are shown in the figure below.

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