International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management

ISSN (Print): 2374-2011

ISSN (Online): 2374-2038

Editor-in-Chief: Tarek Sadraoui




The Role of Uganda Securities Exchange in the Economic Growth of Uganda: An Econometric Analysis

1Faculty of Business and Development Studies, Gulu University, P. O. Box 166 Gulu, Uganda

2Department of Management, SMC University, Zug, Switzerland

International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management. 2015, 3(3), 131-141
doi: 10.12691/ijefm-3-3-4
Copyright © 2015 Science and Education Publishing

Cite this paper:
Mshilla Maghanga, William Quisenberry. The Role of Uganda Securities Exchange in the Economic Growth of Uganda: An Econometric Analysis. International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management. 2015; 3(3):131-141. doi: 10.12691/ijefm-3-3-4.

Correspondence to: Mshilla  Maghanga, Faculty of Business and Development Studies, Gulu University, P. O. Box 166 Gulu, Uganda. Email:


This study focused on the role of the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE) in stimulating economic growth in Uganda based on the premise that its contribution is not evident and yet is has been documented that economic growth is accelerated once a stock exchange opens, and that, securities markets support economic growth and can increase economic efficiency, investment and growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) of a country. This quantitative study focused on a period of twenty five years (1986-2010). Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure was adopted because the Uganda’s stock market is not only small but also very young. The study variables included real GDP as a proxy of economic growth; while the proxies for the stock exchange development were shares traded, market turnover, and market capitalization. The sources of these data included Uganda Bureau os Statictics, Bank of Uganda, USE, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank databases. Analyses were carried out using SPSS and SHAZAM computer softwares. Real GDP was established to be more closely correlated to market capitalisation [Pearson’s r = .973, Sig. (2-tail) = .000] than it is with the turnover [Pearson’s r = .634, Sig. (2-tail) = .036] and the shares traded [Pearson’s r = .730, Sig. (2-tail) = .011]. While a strong and statistically significant correlation was established between the economic growth and the Exchange, the Granger causality relationship findings were inconclusive further affirming that stock markets are not a sine qua non of economic growth. It was recommended that the government should support USE to attract more investors and become more vibrant. Also, USE should take advantage of the East African Stock Markets Association (EASEA) to grow its operations and market base.



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Risk Control versus Risk Management in the Context of an Active Management: The Emerging Market Alternative

1Central Bank of Kenya, University of Nairobi, Strathmore Business School, Kenya

International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management. 2015, 3(4), 142-150
doi: 10.12691/ijefm-3-4-1
Copyright © 2015 Science and Education Publishing

Cite this paper:
John Mahasi, Rhoda Wanjiru. Risk Control versus Risk Management in the Context of an Active Management: The Emerging Market Alternative. International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management. 2015; 3(4):142-150. doi: 10.12691/ijefm-3-4-1.

Correspondence to: John  Mahasi, Central Bank of Kenya, University of Nairobi, Strathmore Business School, Kenya. Email:


The regulatory environment to which financial institutions and specially banks are subjected has been evolving over the years. However, global financial sector stability has remained elusive with the global economy experiencing more financial crises in the past decade than the preceding decades. These financial tremors have had their epicenters in the advanced economies triggered by events in the banking industry. Further, economic growth in the developed economies has been very low and sometimes negative with close to 50 percent of the stock market value having been wiped out by the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. Against a backdrop of improved bank supervision and regulation courtesy of the Basel frameworks the Eurozone economies are reeling in recession. On the other hand the emerging and transitional economies have for the past close to a decade and a half showed resilient and outstanding performance with less stringent supervisory regimes enabling commercial banks to earn high profits. The profitability of the industry bolsters investment and recurrent expenditure all of which have the effect of fueling inflation and volatile exchange rates which accelerate economic growth, high interest and lending rates as well as market liquidity. These conditions provide opportunities for arbitrage trading that gives above average returns on investment as exemplified by the trend analysis. The high economic growth comes with attendant high inflation, lending rates and returns on government securities. The study set out to determine whether the high return environment within developing economies provides arbitrage investment opportunities and influences foreign investment by attracting foreign investment participation in government securities trading. The specific objectives were to demonstrate the adverse effects including the systemic vulnerabilities imposed by excess competition occasioned by thorough regulation and to empirically determine whether higher high exchange, lending, Tbill and Tbond rates attract foreign investment to developing economies with focus on Kenyan government securities. The study adopted secondary time series data analysis to establish whether or not lending rates, USD exchange rates, Tbond and Tbill rates affect foreign investment in government securities. The time series data analysis confirmed that in the long run, Tbond, USD exchange and lending rates all significantly influence the foreign investment in Kenya vide the Treasury bonds avenue. Based on these findings we conclude that emerging and transitional economies offer a perfect arbitrage investment opportunity for low return advanced economies.



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A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Relationship between Structural Policy and Economic Growth

1Higher Institute of Management of Gabes, Tunisia

2MODELIS Laboratory, University of Sfax, HIAS University of Gafsa

International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management. 2016, 4(1), 1-10
doi: 10.12691/ijefm-4-1-1
Copyright © 2016 Science and Education Publishing

Cite this paper:
Wajdi Bardi, Tarek Sadraoui, Anouar Bardi. A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Relationship between Structural Policy and Economic Growth. International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management. 2016; 4(1):1-10. doi: 10.12691/ijefm-4-1-1.

Correspondence to: Wajdi  Bardi, Higher Institute of Management of Gabes, Tunisia. Email:


Governments around the world must formulate and implement policies for taxation and public spending. These policies can have major impacts on economic growth, income distribution, and poverty, and thus they tend to be at the center of economic and political debates. In this study, we estimate the dynamic relationship between structural policy and economic growth. We will try to bring some theoretical literature on the relations of structural policy emergence as a new approach of economic coordination. Our empirical study recently bases on various estimation methods developed within dynamic panel framework for a sample of 6 countries over 1975-2012. We used Generalized Moment Method, causality tests and unit root applied to panel data. Results suggest a positive and significant relation between structural policy and economic growth for all countries sample.



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