International Journal of Data Envelopment Analysis and *Operations Research*
ISSN (Print): ISSN Pending ISSN (Online): ISSN Pending Website: Editor-in-chief: Ehsan Zanboori
Open Access
Journal Browser
International Journal of Data Envelopment Analysis and *Operations Research*. 2014, 1(3), 49-52
DOI: 10.12691/ijdeaor-1-3-2
Open AccessArticle

Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Mother-To-Child Transmission of HIV: A Case Study in Referral Hospital and Health Center of Hawassa Town, South Nation Nationality People, Ethiopia

Helen Moges Fentaw1, Anteneh Worku2 and Omprakash Sahu2,

1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Wollo University, Kombolcha, Ethiopia

2Department of Chemical Engineering, Wollo University, Kombolcha, Ethiopia

Pub. Date: October 19, 2014

Cite this paper:
Helen Moges Fentaw, Anteneh Worku and Omprakash Sahu. Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Mother-To-Child Transmission of HIV: A Case Study in Referral Hospital and Health Center of Hawassa Town, South Nation Nationality People, Ethiopia. International Journal of Data Envelopment Analysis and *Operations Research*. 2014; 1(3):49-52. doi: 10.12691/ijdeaor-1-3-2


Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV (MTCT) is the major source of HIV infection among children under the age of 15 years. Within the prevention programs, package of services including HIV counseling and testing, provision of prophylactic antiretroviral (ARV) drugs for mothers and babies, safe delivery practices and infant feeding counseling is being given. This study is thus to model mother-to-child transmission of HIV and survival of HIV infected babies. The data were obtained from Health Centre and Referral Hospital at Hawassa town recorded from year 1999-2001. Bayesian logistic regression, Kaplan Meier method & Cox proportional hazards model are applied. The results of the analysis showed that among the 200 children who HIV positive 16% died were. Another finding is that about 97.3% of the total pregnant women were married and 41.3% of them were illiterate. Among 802 mothers, 97 or 12.1% are HIV positive. From the 97 HIV positive pregnant women, a majority (92.8%) had good knowledge about HIV transmission and AIDS disease. However 94.9% of them had very low knowledge about the prophylaxis treatment and ART medication. The variables age, marital status and occupation are the main significant factors that may expose the mothers to HIV infection. Pregnant women who were married and in elementary occupation were more likely to be infected than those who were unmarried and in higher occupation. Moreover, analysis of the children data showed that variables low weight, low CD4 count of children and interaction of both with age decrease the hazard of time to death by 15%, 2% and 0% respectively. Conclusion considering the prevailing high level of HIV infection rate among MTCT clients, re-organization of the PMTCT services especially raising the level of awareness of MTCT/PMTCT among pregnant women is important to prevent the babies from HIV infection.

adults babies country women

Creative CommonsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit


[1]  USAID, 2009. Monitoring HIV/AIDS Programs: A Facilitator’s Training Guide, A USAID; Resource for Prevention, Care and Treatment.
[2]  HAPCO (2006). Report on Progress towards Implementation of the Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS HAPCO, HIV/AIDS prevention and control.
[3]  MHO/HAPCO (2007). Guidelines for Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV In Ethiopia.
[4]  Chiang W, Stranix-Chibanda WL, 2007. Routine offer of antenatal HIV testing ("opt-out" approach) to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Urban Zimbabwe." Bulletin of the World Health Organization 85 (11): 843-50.
[5]  Central Statistical Authority (CSA), 2006. The 2006 National statistics; Social statstics, Central Statstical Agency Ethiopia.
[6]  Central Statistical Authority (CSA), 2007. Ethiopia Demographic and health survey 2005. C. Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia.
[7]  Alemnesh, EC, 2008. Utilization of PMTCT services in Hawassa town, Ethiopia.M.Sc. Centre for International Health Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry University of Bergen, Norway.
[8]  CDC 1985. Current Trends Recommendations for Assisting in the Prevention of Perinatal Transmission of Human T-Lymphotropic Virus Type II/Lymphadenopathy- Associated Virus and Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome " MMWR 34 (48).
[9]  Centre for Disease Control 2005. Revised Recommendations for HIV Testing of Adults, Adolescents, a Pregnant Women in Health-Care Settings. MMWR 50 (RR-19).
[10]  Bhat K, Buwn C, 2003. Barriers to the implementation of programs for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a cross-sectional survey in rural and urban Uganda. AIDS research and therapy 2: 10.
[11]  Baggley MT, 2002. Ensuring a public health impact of programs to reduce HIV transmission from mothers to infants: the place of voluntary counseling and testing. American journal of public health 92 (3): 347-51.
[12]  Essex W, Draper B, Temmerman M, 2002. Implementation of single-dose nevirapine for prevention of MTCT of HIV--lessons from Cape Town. South African medical journal 96 (8): 706-708.
[13]  Abashawl A, Lulseged S, Awano T, Adamu R, Kumbi S, Isehak A, Coberly J, Bedri A, Sweat M, Ruff A, 2004. Breastfeeding (BF) practices of HIV seropositive women in PMTCT project. The XV International AIDS Conference. Bangkok.
[14]  Berhanu, EC, 2009. Survival Analysis of time to treatment resumption for chronic HIV-1 Patients interrupting Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART).
[15]  Foster C, Lyall H, 2005. Current guidelines for the management of UK Infants born to HIV-1 infected mothers. Early human development 81 (1): 103-110.
[16]  Malyuta R, Newell L, Thorne M, Zhilka NC, 2006. Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection: Ukraine experience to date." The European journal of public health 16 (2): 123-127.
[17]  Garbus L, 2003. AIDS in Ethiopia,. Country AIDS policy analysis project, University of California San Francisco, AIDS research institute and AIDS policy research center.
[18]  John M, 2007. Access to appropriate information on HIV is important in maximizing the acceptance of the antenatal HIV antibody test. AIDS Care 17 (2): 145-146.
[19]  Dabis S, 2000. Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV In developing countries: recommendations for practice. The Ghent International Working Group on Mother-To-Child Transmission of HIV." Health policy and Planning 15 (1): 34-42.
[20]  Khayelitsha SA, 2002. National program for preventing mother-child HIV transmission in Thailand: successful implementation and lessons learned. AIDS 16 (7): 953-959.
[21]  Kourtis P, Lee K, 2006. Mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1: timing and implications for prevention. The Lancet infectious diseases 6 (11): 726-32.
[22]  Lewis A, 2001. Determinants of vct uptake among pregnant women attending two ANC clinics in Addis Ababa City: unmatched case control study. Ethiopian Medical Journal 45 (4): 335-42.