American Journal of Numerical Analysis
ISSN (Print): 2372-2118 ISSN (Online): 2372-2126 Website: http://www.sciepub.com/journal/ajna Editor-in-chief: Emanuele Galligani
Open Access
Journal Browser
Go
American Journal of Numerical Analysis. 2013, 1(1), 8-14
DOI: 10.12691/ajna-1-1-2
Open AccessArticle

Probabilistic and Sensitivity Investigation for the Hill Slopes in Uttarakhand, Lesser Himalaya, India

Ashutosh kainthola1, , Dhananjai verma2 and T N Singh1

1Department of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India

2Geological Survey of India, Su: Gujarat, Gandhinagar, India

Pub. Date: November 08, 2013

Cite this paper:
Ashutosh kainthola, Dhananjai verma and T N Singh. Probabilistic and Sensitivity Investigation for the Hill Slopes in Uttarakhand, Lesser Himalaya, India. American Journal of Numerical Analysis. 2013; 1(1):8-14. doi: 10.12691/ajna-1-1-2

Abstract

Himalayas is one of most seismically active mountain chain in the world. Landsides and the mass wasting are a prevalent phenomenon in this region. There are a considerable number of human populations living in the hilly regions which are under a constant threat of hill slope collapse. The stability assessment of these hills is one of the vital steps to mitigate the danger to this natural calamity. The deterministic factor of safety calculations have been traditionally used for the hazard evaluation of the hill slopes. For the present study, two hill slopes, Chandaak and Chhera, have been selected for probabilistic and sensitivity analysis. These areas were analyzed using limit equilibrium method for calculation of factor of safety and probability of failure. The factors of safety were calculated using Bishop's method of slice. The analysis was done for both dry and saturated conditions. At the same time the sensitivity of each parameter on the factor of safety was analyzed. The probability analysis of these areas was done using Monte-Carlo simulation which uses randomly selected discrete values of each variable from their probability distribution. In both the hill slopes the rock mass has varied weathering grade, ranging from highly weathered to moderately weathered. Seasonal variation in the rock mass strength was accounted for in the study. Chhera hill were quantified to have high FOS in both cases (dry and saturated) as compared to the Chahdaak hill, making than more vulnerable.

Keywords:
Himalayan Rock Mechanics slope stability numerical simulation sensitivity analysis

Creative CommonsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Figures

Figure of 9

References:

[1]  Rajesh Singh, R. K. Umrao and T.N. Singh, 2012, Probabilistic analysis of slope in Amiyan landslide area, Uttarakhand. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk.
 
[2]  K. Sarkar, T.N.Singh and A.K. Verma,2012, A numerical simulation of landslide-prone slope in Himalayan region - a case study, International Journal of Arabian Geosciences, 5, 73-81.
 
[3]  D. Verma, D.Choudhury, P. G. Ranjith and T. N. Singh, 2012, Scale effect on strength and failure modes of open pit cut slope of Wardha Valley coalfield in India, In Geo-Congress 2012: State of the Art and Practice in Geotechnical Engineering, Geotechnical Special Publication, No. 225, ASCE, Edited by R. D. Hryciw, A. A. Zekkos and N. Yesiller, Reston, VA, USA, 576-585.
 
[4]  D. Verma, R. Thareja, A. Kainthola, and T. N. Singh, 2011, Evaluation of open pit mine slope stability analysis, International Journal of Earth Sciences and Engineering, 4(4), 590-600.
 
[5]  Kainthola, A., Verma, D., Singh, T. N. (2011) Computational analysis for the Stability of Black Cotton Soil Bench in an Open Cast Coal Mine in Wardha Valley Coal Field, Maharashtra, Int. Jour. of econ. Env. Geol. 2(1), 11-28.
 
[6]  Kainthola, A., P. K. Singh, A. B. Wasnik, M. Sazid and T. N. Singh, (2012) Finite Element Analysis of Road Cut Slopes using Hoek & Brown Failure Criterion, International Journal of Earth Sciences and Engineering, 5(5),1100-1109.
 
[7]  Hyuck-Jin Parka,T, Terry R. Westb, Ik Woo.( 2005). Probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability and random properties of discontinuity parameters, Interstate Highway 40, Western North Carolina, USA, Engineering Geology , 79, 230-250.
 
[8]  Baecher, G.B.(1983). Statistical analysis of rock mass fracturing.J.Math. Geol. 15 (2), 329-347.
 
[9]  Einstein, H.H., Baecher, G.B. (1983). Probabilistic and statistical methods in engineering geology; specific methods and examples-Part 1: exploration. Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 16, 39-72.
 
[10]  Kainthola, A., Verma, D., S S Gupte, T N Singh,2011, A coal mine dump stability analysis-A case study, International journal of Geomaterial, 1:1-13.
 
[11]  Kainthola, A. Verma, D., S S Gupte, T N Singh,2011, Analysis of failed dump slope using limit equilibrium approach, Mining Engineers’ Journal, 12 (12): 28-32.
 
[12]  Whittlestone, A.P., Johnson, J.D., Rogers, M.E., and Pine, R.J. (1995). Probabilistic risk analysis of slope stability. Trans. Instn. Min. Metall. ( Scct.A: Mining Industry), 101,149-158.
 
[13]  Bishop, A.W.(1955). The use of the slip circle in the stability analysis of slopes.Geotechnique 5(1), 7-17.
 
[14]  Janbu, N. (1957). Earth pressure and bearing capacity calculations by generalized procedure of slices. Proc. 4thInt.Conf. Soil. Mech. FdnEngng, 2, 207-212. London: Butterworths.
 
[15]  Morgenstern, N.R. & Price, V.E. (1965). The analysis of the stability of general slip surface.Geotechnique 15(1), 79-93.
 
[16]  Spencer, E. (1967). A method of analysis of the stability of embankments assuming parallel interslices forces. Geotechnique 17(1), 11-26.
 
[17]  Chen, Z.Y. & Morgenstern, N.R. (1983). Extensions to the generalized method of slices for stability analysis.Can.Geotech.J. 20(1),104-119.
 
[18]  Chen, Z.Y. & Shao, C.M. (1988). Evaluation of minimum factor of safety in slope stability analysis.Can.Geotech.J. 25 (4), 735-748.
 
[19]  Chen, Z.Y. (1992). Random trials used in determining global minimum factor of safety. Can.Geotech.J. 29 (1), 225-233.
 
[20]  Valdiya, K.S. (1980). Geology of Kumaun Lesser Himalaya Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, India, 21p.
 
[21]  Hoek, E., Carranza-Torres, C. and Corkum, B. (2002) Hoek–Brown failure criterion-2002 ed. In: Proc. of the 5th North Am. Rock Mech. Symp. and 17th Tunnelling Association of Canada Conference: NARMS-TAC, University of Toronto, 267-271.
 
[22]  ISRM .(1979). Suggested methods for determining the uniaxial compressive strength and deformability of rock materials, Int J Rock Mech Min Sci. 16 (2), 135-140.
 
[23]  Rocscience “A new area in slope stability analysis: Shear strength reduction finite element technique.” RocNews. 2004.