American Journal of Modeling and Optimization
ISSN (Print): 2333-1143 ISSN (Online): 2333-1267 Website: Editor-in-chief: Dr Anil Kumar Gupta
Open Access
Journal Browser
American Journal of Modeling and Optimization. 2014, 2(1), 25-33
DOI: 10.12691/ajmo-2-1-4
Open AccessArticle

Models for Forecasting the Demand and Supply of Electricity in Nigeria

Benjamin Oyediran Oyelami1, and Adedamola adedoyin Adewumi2

1Theoretical Physics, National Mathematical Centre, Abuja, Nigeria

2Department of Mathematics, University of Abuja, Nigeria

Pub. Date: March 10, 2014

Cite this paper:
Benjamin Oyediran Oyelami and Adedamola adedoyin Adewumi. Models for Forecasting the Demand and Supply of Electricity in Nigeria. American Journal of Modeling and Optimization. 2014; 2(1):25-33. doi: 10.12691/ajmo-2-1-4


In this paper, the Garch model is used to determine the market volatility in the demand and supply chains of electricity in Nigeria for 36 years, i.e. from 1970 to 2005 from the historic data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics. The Harvey logistic model is used to predict the demand and supply of electricity in the country from 2005 to 2026. From the results obtained, the demand and supply of electricity show mixture of spikes because of mean reverse behavior about the mean values and the demand outweighed the supply. The consequence of this is that there is vast market prosperity for investors in the power sector in Nigeria. It is estimated that about 317.5 billion US dollars business opportunities are available to new independent power stations in Nigeria.

demand supply electricity garch Arima Harvey logistic model

Creative CommonsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit


[1]  Ackerman, G Short-Term Load Prediction for Electric-Utility Control of Generating Units. Comparative models for electrical Load forecasting, 1985, pp. 32-42, New York.
[2]  Al-Alawi, S.M and Syed, M.Islam, Principles of Electricity Demand Forecasting: Part 1 Methodologies. Power Engineering Journal 10 (3), 1996, 139-143.
[3]  Al-Garni, A.Z., Syed, M.Z. and Javeed, S.N. (1994) A Regression Model for Electric-Energy-consumption forecasting in Eastern Saudi Arabia. Energy, 19 (10), 1994. 1043-1049.
[4]  Bilgin, M., Geopolitics of European Natural Gas Demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and Middle East. Energy Policy, 2009.
[5]  Bamgbola M and Oke M Minimization of losses on electric power transmission line. Mathematical theory and modeling, Vol. 3, (7), 2013, 28-31.
[6]  Bassey B E Modeling volatility of the Nigerian Stock return using time series models (heteroscedasicity approach). dissertation submitted University of Abuja, Nigeria, 2009.
[7]  Bodger P.S and Tay, H.S ‘Logistic and energy substitution Models for Electricity Forecasting: A Comparison Using New Zealand Consumption Data’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 31, 1987, pp. 27-48.
[8]  Dahl, C.A, A survey of Energy Demand Elasticities in Support of Development of the NEMS. US Department of Energy, 1993.
[9]  Dilaver, Z and Hunt, L.C., Industrial Electricity for Turkey: A Structural Time Series Analysis. Energy Economics 33, 2011, pp. 426-436.
[10]  Dapice, D. “Electricity demand and supply in Myanmar”. Electric Power Research Institute, (1977) “Forecasting and Modeling Time-of-Day and Seasonal Electricity Demands” EPRI EA-578-SR, Palo Alto, CA. 2012.
[11]  Harvey, Andrew and Siem Jan Koopmans, “Forecasting Hourly Electricity Demands Using Time-Varying Splines,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, 1993 pp 1228-1237.
[12]  North America Electric Reliability Council “Electricity Supply and Demand for 1990-1999”. 1990,Princeton New jersey
[13]  Jaimungal, S. IMPA Commodities course: Electricity Models, 2008.
[14]  Oyelami, B O “Models for pricing of electricity commodity”. Mathematical Theory and modeling, Vol. 3 (1), 2013, 71-85.
[15]  Sambo, A, Garba, B, Zarma, H and Gaji, M, Electricity Generation and the present Challenges in the Nigerian Power sector. Technical paper Energy Commission of Nigeria, Abuja-Nigeria, 2009.
[16]  Solibakke, P.B., Describing the Nordic Forward electricity market: A stochastic model approach. International Journal of Business.11 (4), 2006, 345-349.