Predicting Ross River Virus Infection by Analysis of Seroprevalence Data

James B. Sinclair^{1, 2}, Narayan Gyawali^{1, 3} and Andrew W. Taylor-Robinson^4,

¹School of Health, Medical & Applied Sciences, Central Queensland University, Rockhampton, QLD 4702, Australia

²School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia

³Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia

⁴School of Health, Medical & Applied Sciences, Central Queensland University, Brisbane, QLD 4000, Australia

Cite this paper:
James B. Sinclair, Narayan Gyawali and Andrew W. Taylor-Robinson. Predicting Ross River Virus Infection by Analysis of Seroprevalence Data. American Journal of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology. 2019; 7(1):1-7. doi: 10.12691/ajidm-7-1-1

Abstract

Infection with arthropod-borne (arbo)viruses presents a significant and growing public health threat to the resident population of Queensland (QLD), the north-eastern state of Australia. Clinical infection with Ross River virus (RRV) is the most commonly detected, and arguably most debilitating, of Australia’s 75 known indigenous arbovirus species. Development of prediction models to forecast arbovirus epidemics aims to provide accurate and reliable tools that may facilitate planned interventions by local and state authorities to curb disease transmission. Acute immunoglobulin (Ig)M-positive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay results are often misleading, with interpretation cautioned. As such, this serological testing was recently excluded as a means to confirm cases of arbovirus infection in Australia. The purpose of this study was to investigate the seroepidemiological value of acute IgM-positive results across QLD by correlating with RRV case reports and to develop a mathematical model to predict RRV outbreaks. Blood samples from patients throughout QLD suspected of arboviral infection were tested for RRV, with numbers for various serology results grouped by geographical region. The serology data were compared with case reports for each respective region by multiple regression in order to determine any relationships. RRV IgM-positive results correlated significantly to the number of case reports per region (P < 0.05). An estimated multiple regression equation was used to predict RRV case reports from a subset of data extracted for the period December 2015 and January 2016. Predicted cases based on IgM-positive/IgG-negative serology showed no significant correlation to the respective case reports for each region (P > 0.05). Hence, these findings failed to validate the potential use of IgM-positive seroprevalence to predict RRV infection with sufficient accuracy for diagnostic purposes. A possible indirect value may exist, however, in analysing pooled seroprevalence data, which may better inform concurrent surveillance measures and thereby enhance the accuracy of RRV outbreak forecasts.

Keywords:
vector-borne disease arbovirus Ross River virus Australia seroprevalence outbreak infectious disease modelling

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

References:

[1]	Morens DM, Fauci AS. Emerging infectious diseases: threats to human health and global stability. PLoS Pathog 2013; 9: e1003467.
[2]	Cao-Lormeau V-M, Musso D. Emerging arboviruses in the Pacific. Lancet 2014; 384: 1571-1572.
[3]	Gubler DJ. Dengue viruses: their evolution, history and emergence as a global public health problem. In: Gubler DJ, Ooi E, Vasudevan S, Farrar J (eds.): Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. Wallingford: CAB International, 2014. pp. 1-29.
[4]	Gyawali N, Bradbury RS, Aaskov JG, Taylor-Robinson AW. Neglected Australian arboviruses and undifferentiated febrile illness: addressing public health challenges arising from the ‘Developing Northern Australia’ Government policy. Front Microbiol 2017; 8: 2150.
[5]	LaBeaud AD, Bashir F, King CH. Measuring the burden of arboviral diseases: the spectrum of morbidity and mortality from four prevalent infections. Popul Health Metr 2011; 9: 1.
[6]	Ng V, Dear K, Harley D, McMichael A. Analysis and prediction of Ross River virus transmission in New South Wales, Australia. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2014; 14: 422-438.
[7]	Tompkins DM, Slaney D. Exploring the potential for Ross River virus emergence in New Zealand. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2014; 14: 141-148.
[8]	Heersink DK, Meyers J, Caley P, Barnett G, Trewin B, Hurst T, Jansen C. Statistical modeling of a larval mosquito population distribution and abundance in residential Brisbane. J Pest Sci 2016; 89: 267-279.
[9]	Queensland Government. Queensland Joint Strategic Framework for Mosquito Management 2010–2015. Communicable Disease Prevention and Control Unit, Communicable Diseases Branch, Division of the Chief Health Officer. Fortitude Valley: Queensland Health, 2010. pp. 1-26.
[10]	Hall RA, Blitvich BJ, Johansen CA, Blacksell SD. Advances in arbovirus surveillance, detection and diagnosis. J Biomed Biotechnol 2012; 2012: 512969.
[11]	Lyth A, Holbrook NJ. Assessing an indirect health implication of a changing climate: Ross River Virus in a temperate island state. Clim Risk Manag 2015; 10: 77-94.
[12]	Doherty R, Whitehead R, Gorman B, O'Gower A. The isolation of a third group A arbovirus in Australia, with preliminary observations on its relationship to epidemic polyarthritis. Aust J Sci 1963; 26: 183-184.
[13]	Hargreaves J, Longbottom H, Myint H, Herceg A, Oliver G, Curran M, Evans D. Annual report of the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, 1994. Commun Dis Intell 1995; 19: 542-574.
[14]	Australian Government Department of Health. National notifiable diseases: Australia's notifiable diseases status: Annual report of the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. Available at http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/cda-pubs-annlrpt-nndssar.htm. Accessed 5 April 2019; last updated 26 March 2019.
[15]	Russell RC. Ross River virus: ecology and distribution. Annu Rev Entomol 2002; 47: 1-31.
[16]	Doherty RL, Gorman BM, Whitehead RH, Carley JG. Studies of arthropod-borne virus infections in Queensland. V. Survey of antibodies to group A arboviruses in man and other animals. Aust J Exp Biol Med Sci 1966; 44: 365-377.
[17]	Potter A, Johansen CA, Fenwick S, Reid SA, Lindsay MD. The seroprevalence and factors associated with Ross River virus infection in western grey kangaroos (Macropus fuliginosus) in Western Australia. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2014; 14: 740-745.
[18]	Doherty RL, Standfast HA, Domrow R, Wetters EJ, Whitehead RH, Carley JG. Studies of the epidemiology of arthropod-borne virus infections at Mitchell River Mission, Cape York Peninsula, North Queensland. IV. Arbovirus infections of mosquitoes and mammals, 1967-1969. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 1971; 65: 504-513.
[19]	Whitehead RH, Doherty RL, Domrow R, Standfast HA, Wetters EJ. Studies of the epidemiology of arthropod-borne virus infections at Mitchell River Mission, Cape York Peninsula, North Queensland. III. Virus studies of wild birds, 1964–1967. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 1968; 62: 439-445.
[20]	Gyawali N, Bradbury RS, Aaskov JG, Taylor Robinson AW. Neglected Australian arboviruses: quam gravis? Microbes Infect 2017; 19: 388-401.
[21]	Viennet E, Ritchie SA, Faddy HM, Williams CR, Harley D. Epidemiology of dengue in a high-income country: a case study in Queensland, Australia. Parasit Vectors 2014; 7: 379.
[22]	Selvey LA, Donnelly JA, Lindsay MD, Pottumarthy Boddu S, D'Abrera VC, Smith DW. Ross River virus infection surveillance in the Greater Perth Metropolitan area – has there been an increase in cases in the winter months? Commun Dis Intell Q Rep 2014; 38: E114-122.
[23]	Knope K, Doggett SL, Kurucz N, Johansen CA, Nicholson J, Feldman R, Sly A, Hobby M, El Saadi D, Muller M, Jansen CC, Muzari OM. Arboviral diseases and malaria in Australia, 2011-12: annual report of the National Arbovirus and Malaria Advisory Committee. Commun Dis Intell Q Rep 2014; 38: E122-142.
[24]	Knope KE, Kurucz N, Doggett SL, Muller M, Johansen CA, Feldman R, Hobby M, Bennett S, Sly A, Lynch S, Currie BJ, Nicholson J. Arboviral diseases and malaria in Australia, 2012-13: annual report of the National Arbovirus and Malaria Advisory Committee. Commun Dis Intell Q Rep 2016; 40: E17-E47.
[25]	Australian Bureau of Statistics. Queensland Government population projections, 2015 edition. Brisbane: Queensland Government Statistician's Office, 2015.
[26]	Kelly-Hope LA, Kay BH, Purdie DM, Williams GM. The risk of Ross River and Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland: implications for New Zealand. Aust N Z J Public Health 2002; 26: 69-77.
[27]	Hu W, Nicholls N, Lindsay M, Dale P, McMichael AJ, Mackenzie JS, Tong S. Development of a predictive model for Ross River virus disease in Brisbane, Australia. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2004; 71: 129-137.