American Journal of Epidemiology and Infectious Disease
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American Journal of Epidemiology and Infectious Disease. 2016, 4(2), 22-33
DOI: 10.12691/ajeid-4-2-2
Open AccessArticle

Forecasting Based On a SARIMA Model of Urban Malaria for Kolkata

Krishnendra S. Ganguly1, Soumita Modak2, Asis K. Chattopadhyay2, Krishna S. Ganguly3, , Tapan K. Mukherjee3, Ambar Dutta1 and Debashis Biswas3

1Computer Science Department, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Ranchi, Jharkhand 835215, India

2Department of Statistics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, West Bengal 700019, India

3Health Department, The Kolkata Municipal Corporation, Kolkata, West Bengal 700013, India

Pub. Date: May 24, 2016

Cite this paper:
Krishnendra S. Ganguly, Soumita Modak, Asis K. Chattopadhyay, Krishna S. Ganguly, Tapan K. Mukherjee, Ambar Dutta and Debashis Biswas. Forecasting Based On a SARIMA Model of Urban Malaria for Kolkata. American Journal of Epidemiology and Infectious Disease. 2016; 4(2):22-33. doi: 10.12691/ajeid-4-2-2

Abstract

In India Urban Malaria is considered to be the one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases taking lives of many people including children. Kolkata is one of the Metropolitan cities in where the seasonal effect of malaria is very marked. In the present work attempts have been made to study temporal variation of urban malaria incidences using time series model on the basis of a large population survey conducted by the Kolkata Municipal Corporation. It is found that the proposed time series (SARIMA) model can be used very successfully for prediction purposes.

Keywords:
spatio-temporal variation time series model sarima model urban malaria

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