American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture
ISSN (Print): 2328-398X ISSN (Online): 2328-3998 Website: http://www.sciepub.com/journal/ajcea Editor-in-chief: Mohammad Arif Kamal
Open Access
Journal Browser
Go
American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture. 2015, 3(5), 158-164
DOI: 10.12691/ajcea-3-5-2
Open AccessArticle

Numerical Solution of the Total Probability Theorem in a Three Diensional Earthquake Source Domain for Developing Seismic Hazard Map and Hazard Spectrum

Lalu Makrup1, , Masyhur Irsyam2, I Wayan Sengara2 and Hendriyawan3

1Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic University of Indonesia, Yogyakarta

2Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Technology Bandung

3Department of Ocean Engineering, Institute of Technology Bandung

Pub. Date: September 07, 2015

Cite this paper:
Lalu Makrup, Masyhur Irsyam, I Wayan Sengara and Hendriyawan. Numerical Solution of the Total Probability Theorem in a Three Diensional Earthquake Source Domain for Developing Seismic Hazard Map and Hazard Spectrum. American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture. 2015; 3(5):158-164. doi: 10.12691/ajcea-3-5-2

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is a method of assessing seismic threat on a region in the earth surface. Total probability theorem was utilized here has solved on earthquake source domain and employed it in seismic hazard analysis. Solution of the theorem is performed in a computer program and has been used to develop the Hazard Map and the Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS). The map is peak ground acceleration (PGA) of Sumatra Indonesia with hazard level 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and the UHS is from a site in Surabaya Indonesia with hazard level 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The two result of the program are verified by the two previous study results. The result of the program is very similar to two other studies.

Keywords:
development probability seismic hazard seismic source map

Creative CommonsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Figures

Figure of 16

References:

[1]  Aldiamar (2007). Analisis Risiko Gempa dan Pembuatan Respon Spektra untuk Jembatan Suramadu dengan Pemodelan Sumber Gempa Tiga Dimensi. Thesis. of , 2007.
 
[2]  Atkinson, G.M. and Boore, D.M. (2003). “Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions”, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 93, p. 1703-1729.
 
[3]  Boore, D.M., and Atkinson G. M, (2006), Boore-Atkinson provisional NGA empirical ground-motion model for the average horizontal component of PGA, PGV and SA at spektral periods of 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 seconds, v 1.7 (October, 2006), http://peer.berkeley.edu/ products/Boore-Atkinson-NGA_11-13-06.html.
 
[4]  Campbell, K.W., Bozorgnia, Y., (2006), Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA Empirical Ground Motion Model for the Average Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, PGD and SA at Selected Spektral Periods Ranging from 0.01-10.0 Seconds (Version1.1), http://peer.berkeley.edu/products/campbell bozorgnia_nga _report_ files/Campbell Bozorgnia NGA Report_DEC 15 2006_Ver1.1.
 
[5]  Chiou, B S.J.; Youngs, R.R, (2006). Chiou and Youngs PEER-NGA Empirical Ground Motion Model for the Average Horizontal Component of Peak Acceleration and Pseudo-Spektral Acceleration for Spektral Periods of 0.01 to 10 Seconds-Interim Report for USGS Review - June 14, 2006 (Revised Editorially July 10,2006), http://peer. Berkeley.edu/products/CYProgram/Chiou-Youngs-NGA, 2006.
 
[6]  Cornell, C.A. (1968): “Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis”, Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, Vol. 58, pp. 1583-1606.
 
[7]  Cornell, C.A. and Vanmarcke, E.H. (1969): “The Major Influences on Seismic Risk”, Proc. of the 4th World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering, Santiago, Chile.
 
[8]  Electric Power Research Institute (1986): “Seismic Hazard Methodology for the Central and Eastern United States”, EPRI, Palo Alto, EPRI, NP-4726.
 
[9]  Gutenberg, B. & Richter, C. F. (1944), Frequency of Earthquake in California, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.34, No. 4, pp. pp. 1985-1988.
 
[10]  Gardner, J.K., Knopoff, L., 1974. Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 64, 1363-1367.
 
[11]  Kramer S.L.( 1996), Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering. Prentice Hall:New Jersey.
 
[12]  Irsyama M, Asrurifaka M, Hendriyawana, Budionoa B, Triyoso W, and Firmanti A (2010). Development of spectral hazard maps for a proposed revision of the Indonesian Seismic Building Code. Geomechanics and Geoengineering: An International Journal, Vol. 5, No. 1, March 2010, 35-47.
 
[13]  Irsyam M., Dangkua D.T., Hendriyawan, Hoedajanto D., Hutapea B. M., Kertapati E.K., Boen T., dan Petersen M. D, et al., (2008), The Proposed seismic hazard maps of Sumatra and Java islands and microzonation study of Jakarta city, Indonesia, J. Earth Syst. Sci. 117, S2, November 2008, pp. 865-878.
 
[14]  McGuire R. K. (1976), EQRISK Evaluation of Sites for Earthquake Risk. United States Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, A Computer Program Distributed by NISEE/Computer Applications.
 
[15]  McGuire R. K. (2005), EZ Frisk Versions 7 manual, Risk Engineering Inc.
 
[16]  Nicolaou.A.S. (1998), A GIS Platform for Earthquake Risk Analysis. A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of State University of New York at Buffalo USA in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, August.
 
[17]  Petersen, M.D., Dewey, J., Hartzell, S., Mueller, C., Harmsen, S., Frankel, A.D., and Rukstales, K., (2004), Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula. Elsevier.
 
[18]  Petersen, M.D., Harmsen, S., Mueller, C., Haller, K., Dewey, J., Luco, N., Crone, A., Rukstales, K., and Lidke, D., (2008), Probabilistic seismic hazard for Southeast Asia. International Conference of Earthquake Engineering and Disaster Mitigation, Jakarta, April 14, 15, 2008.
 
[19]  Sadigh K. et. al., (1997), Attenuation Relationships for shallow Crustal Earthquake Based on California Strong Motion Data, Seismological Research Letters, Volume 68 Januari/Pebruary 1997, Seismological Society of America.
 
[20]  Schwartz. D.P., and Coppersmith. K.J., (1984). “Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes - Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones”, Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 89, no. B7, p. 5681-5698.
 
[21]  Wells. D.L., and Coppersmith. K.J., (1994). “New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, and surface displacements”, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 84. p. 974-1002.
 
[22]  Youngs, R.R., Chiou, S. J, dan Silva W.J., (1997), Strong Ground Motion Attenuation Relationships for Subduction Zone Earthquakes, Seismological Research Letters, Volume 68 Januari/Pebruary 1997, Seismological Society of America.
 
[23]  Youngs, R.R. and Coppersmith, K.J. (1985): “Implications of Fault Slip Rates and earthquake Recurrence Models to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Estimates”, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 75, No.4, pp. 939-964.