American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture
ISSN (Print): 2328-398X ISSN (Online): 2328-3998 Website: Editor-in-chief: Dr. Mohammad Arif Kamal
Open Access
Journal Browser
American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture. 2021, 9(2), 64-72
DOI: 10.12691/ajcea-9-2-4
Open AccessArticle

Allocating Evacuation Shelters in Kumamoto Compact City under the Population Estimation

Hang Liu1, and Riken Homma2

1Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto University, 2-39-1 Kurokami, Chuo-ku, Kumamoto City, Japan

2Faculty of Advanced Science and Technology, Kumamoto University, 2-39-1 Kurokami, Chuo-ku, Kumamoto City, Japan

Pub. Date: July 04, 2021

Cite this paper:
Hang Liu and Riken Homma. Allocating Evacuation Shelters in Kumamoto Compact City under the Population Estimation. American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture. 2021; 9(2):64-72. doi: 10.12691/ajcea-9-2-4


Evacuation shelters provide shelter and basic living facilities for affected people after disasters. They are an essential part of the urban disaster emergency response system. In this study, a spatialization distribution model of the population in Kumamoto City was constructed using land use data. The P-median model was used to analyze the service areas and the supply and demand of evacuation shelters, the distance of demand points to the corresponding shelters. The results show that the ratio of shelters that met the demand in Kumamoto City is only 41.2%, which is less than half. This ratio increased more in the Urbanization Area. In the Residential Promotion Area and the Urbanization Function Promotion Area with higher population density, the ratio of evacuation shelters with insufficient capacity is higher than that in the Urbanization Area. Among the 15 local hubs in the Urbanization Function Promotion Area, only three shelters have a supply-demand ratio greater than 1. About half of the people can reach the shelter within a distance of 0-1000 meters in terms of evacuation distance. The spatial population estimation model using land use data constructed in this study can simulate the spatial distribution of demand points in evacuation. The supply and demand of shelters were evaluated concerning their capacity. It can be used as a reference for the optimal allocation of evacuation shelters in Kumamoto City and future disaster prevention planning in the Kumamoto compact city.

evacuation shelter Kumamoto compact city P-median population estimation

Creative CommonsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit


Figure of 8


[1]  Survey on the Operation of Evacuation Shelters Available online: (accessed on 24 May 2021).
[2]  Renne, J.L. Emergency Evacuation Planning Policy for Carless and Vulnerable Populations in the United States and United Kingdom. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2018, 31, 1254-1261.
[3]  Chen, W.; Zhai, G.; Ren, C.; Shi, Y.; Zhang, J. Urban Resources Selection and Allocation for Emergency Shelters: In a Multi-Hazard Environment. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2018, 15, 1261.
[4]  Zhao, X.; Xu, W.; Ma, Y.; Qin, L.; Zhang, J.; Wang, Y. Relationships Between Evacuation Population Size, Earthquake Emergency Shelter Capacity, and Evacuation Time. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 2017, 8, 457-470.
[5]  Xu, W.; Hu, F.; Ming, X.; Du, J.; Ying, L.; Gu, Z.; Ge, Y. A Review of Natural Disaster Shlter Location Research. Journa of Catastrophology 2013, 143-151.
[6]  Weng, X.; Zhang, L.; Yuan, Y.; Chen, K. Based on P-Median Location Model in Emergency Material Storage Facility Location Problem on Anhui Province. 2012, 2995-3001.
[7]  Na Ayudhya, W.S. Flood Shelters Location Using P-Median Model. In Proceedings of the 2020 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM); December 2020; pp. 11-15.
[8]  Huang, H.; Lin, P.; Lo, S. Application of P-Median Model on Emergency Shelter Location Planning. Yingyong Jichu yu Gongcheng Kexue Xuebao/Journal of Basic Science and Engineering 2004, 62-66.
[9]  Kılcı, F.; Kara, B.Y.; Bozkaya, B. Locating Temporary Shelter Areas after an Earthquake: A Case for Turkey. European Journal of Operational Research 2015, 243, 323-332.
[10]  Pan, A. The Applications of Maximal Covering Model in Typhoon Emergency Shelter Location Problem. In Proceedings of the 2010 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management; December 2010; pp. 1727-1731.
[11]  Ye, M.; Wang, J.; Huang, J.; Xu, S.; Chen, Z. Methodology and Its Application for Community-Scale Evacuation Planning against Earthquake Disaster. Nat Hazards 2012, 61, 881-892.
[12]  Shi, Y.; Zhai, G.; Xu, L.; Zhu, Q.; Deng, J. Planning Emergency Shelters for Urban Disasters: A Multi-Level Location–Allocation Modeling Approach. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4285.
[13]  Zhao, L.; Li, H.; Sun, Y.; Huang, R.; Hu, Q.; Wang, J.; Gao, F. Planning Emergency Shelters for Urban Disaster Resilience: An Integrated Location-Allocation Modeling Approach. Sustainability 2017, 9, 2098.
[14]  Xu, J.; Yin, X.; Chen, D.; An, J.; Nie, G. Multi-Criteria Location Model of Earthquake Evacuation Shelters to Aid in Urban Planning. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2016, 20, 51-62.
[15]  Jin, J.G.; Shen, Y.; Hu, H.; Fan, Y.; Yu, M. Optimizing Underground Shelter Location and Mass Pedestrian Evacuation in Urban Community Areas: A Case Study of Shanghai. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 2021, 149, 124-138.
[16]  Bian, R.; Wilmot, C.G. An Analysis on Transit Pick-up Points for Vulnerable People during Hurricane Evacuation: A Case Study of New Orleans. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2018, 31, 1143-1151.
[17]  Zhang, X.; Yu, J.; Chen, Y.; Wen, J.; Chen, J.; Yin, Z. Supply–Demand Analysis of Urban Emergency Shelters Based on Spatiotemporal Population Estimation. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 2020, 11, 519-537.
[18]  Koko, L.; Yuji, M. A GIS Approach to Estimation of Building Population for Micro‐spatial Analysis. Transactions in GIS 2010, 13, 401-414.
[19]  Greger, K. Spatio-Temporal Building Population Estimation for Highly Urbanized Areas Using GIS. Transactions in GIS 2015, 19, 129-150.
[20]  Mossoux, S.; Kervyn, M.; Soulé, H.; Canters, F. Mapping Population Distribution from High Resolution Remotely Sensed Imagery in a Data Poor Setting. Remote Sensing 2018, 10, 1409.
[21]  Tomás, L.; Fonseca, L.; Almeida, C.; Leonardi, F.; Pereira, M. Urban Population Estimation Based on Residential Buildings Volume Using IKONOS-2 Images and Lidar Data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 2016, 37, 1-28.
[22]  PAN Y.; HUANG W.; YE S.; QI X. Research on statistical population spatialization model based on land use type data: An case study of Fujian Province. yndxxbzrb 2020, 42, 701-711.
[23]  Thanh, N.; Shen, Z.; Sugihara, K. Comparative Study on Going to Evacuation Shelters in School Districts and the Nearest Shelter in the City-A Case Study of Kanazawa City, Japan. Disaster Advances 2017, 10, 21-30.
[24]  Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station Available online: (accessed on 12 May 2021).
[25]  Location Normalization Plan of Kumamoto City. Available online: (accessed on 12 May 2021).
[26]  Tadashi, I. Reasons for Choosing to Evacuate in the Car during the Kumamoto Earthquake and Difficulties in Life. Sociological Society of West Japan 2018, 16, 5-22.
[27]  Basic Resident Register Population of Kumamoto City Available online: (accessed on 12 May 2021).
[28]  Kumamoto Homepage: Evacuation shelters Available online: (accessed on 28 May 2021).